Polyester yarn prices are rising again, but this time mill owners remain notably calm. Unlike post-Lunar New Year surges of 500-1,000 yuan per day, current increases are modest at 50-100 yuan daily. This is driven by oil price spikes, but the bigger story is the second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global energy supply chains.
Event Background
China Customs data on July 14 shows textile and apparel exports rose 7.2% year-on-year in June and 14.3% month-on-month. Textile exports grew 12.2%, while apparel rose 3.2%. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year. This growth is linked to order shifts from Southeast Asia, where energy shortages disrupted production.
However, the energy crisis remains unresolved. During a brief window after the first blockade, only 28 vessels per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz (June 18-July 5), down from 130-138 pre-conflict, per the IMF's PortWatch project. Iran claimed 40 million barrels exported, and the U.S. escorted over 800 ships, but the International Maritime Organization noted hundreds of vessels and 6,000 seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf. Asian countries replenished limited oil stocks before the new blockade.
Industry Impact
In the short term, the energy crisis benefits China's textile sector. Southeast Asian production disruptions redirected orders to China, boosting June exports. But long-term risks loom: oil shortages could disrupt global economic order. China mitigates risks via new energy and coal chemicals, but most countries lack such capacity.
More critically, oil price hikes may fuel global inflation, prompting Fed rate hikes and liquidity crises. China's textile exports rely heavily on overseas demand. If the global economy falters, China cannot remain unscathed. Polyester yarn price increases are cost-driven, but the key question is whether downstream demand can sustain the pressure.