On July 15, the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises fell sharply to 42.3%, a 24.7 percentage point drop from the previous trading day. This data, from publicly available industry sources, acts as a prism reflecting the deep wait-and-see period in the chemical fiber market. Downstream users have almost universally pressed pause, purchasing only for the most essential needs, creating a flat trading atmosphere.
The Logic Behind the Numbers
The sales-to-output ratio is one of the most sensitive thermometers in the chemical fiber industry. A value of 42.3% means more than half of the day's production failed to convert into actual sales, signaling that inventory pressure is building upstream toward polyester plants. Looking at the detailed sales data from sample enterprises, only a few achieved 100% or 160% sell-through, while the vast majority languished in the low range of 20% to 40%, with one enterprise reporting zero sales. This extreme divergence indicates that demand is not absent but highly concentrated, driven by either ultra-low prices or very specific product specifications.
More notably, this data point represents a halving from an already subdued level just one day prior. A single-day drop of 24.7 percentage points is rare over the past three months. It strongly suggests that downstream weaving mills may have already completed their phased stockpiling, or they hold a bearish outlook on future raw material prices, thus proactively compressing their purchasing pace.
Upstream Transmission and Regional Dynamics
Polyester filament is a core midstream raw material in the textile chain. Fluctuations in its sales ratio quickly transmit upstream to PTA and MEG, and downstream to grey fabrics and finished textiles. The current description of downstream users 'purchasing only for immediate needs' is essentially a silent challenge to upstream pricing power. When weaving mills broadly believe raw material prices have room to fall, they delay purchases and reduce inventories to force polyester plants to cut prices.
From a regional perspective, key polyester filament consumption hubs like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan have recently seen slight reductions in weaving mill operating rates. Some small-to-medium mills have trimmed their run rates from full capacity to around 70% to reduce capital tied up in raw materials in transit. This defensive 'production-by-order' strategy, in turn, exacerbates the low polyester filament sales ratio.
Price Expectations and Foreign Trade Variables
Current polyester filament prices are at relatively high levels for the year, but cost-side support from PTA is unsteady amid crude oil volatility. While foreign trade orders showed some recovery in Q2, European and American buyers are increasingly sensitive to finished product prices. Domestic weaving mills often face a scissors effect where raw material prices rise but fabric prices cannot, making them extremely cautious about raw material procurement.
Another variable is the Renminbi exchange rate. Recent volatility has increased hedging costs for foreign trade enterprises, squeezing profits on some long-term orders. This has made export-oriented weaving mills even more frugal in raw material sourcing, preferring to wait for lower prices rather than buying at current highs.