In the first half of 2026, China's polyester industry chain witnessed a rare profit explosion. Hengli Petrochemical's net profit was approximately 7.2 billion yuan, up 136% year-on-year; Hengyi Petrochemical's net profit was 5.5 to 6 billion yuan, a surge of 2326% to 2547%; Shenghong's net profit was 4.2 to 5 billion yuan, up 987% to 1195%; Rongsheng's net profit was 5 to 5.2 billion yuan, up 730% to 764%; Tongkun Group's net profit was 4.1 to 4.5 billion yuan, up 274% to 310%; Xinfengming's net profit was 1.38 to 1.5 billion yuan, up 95% to 112%. The combined net profit of the six companies was approximately 27.4 to 29.4 billion yuan, far exceeding market expectations.
The Dual Engines of Profit Explosion
This profit feast is not accidental, but the result of the resonance of two core variables. The first is the surge in crude oil prices driven by geopolitical conflicts. The US-Iran conflict escalated in early 2026, blocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude from $61 per barrel at the beginning of the year to a high of $118 per barrel in March, with the Q2 center stable at $99 per barrel. Chinese refining companies, due to their diversified crude oil import channels, were less affected than countries with single procurement sources like Japan and South Korea, and instead became beneficiaries of the oil price increase. The second is the effectiveness of the industry's 'anti-involution' policy. In the past two years, the PX-PTA-polyester filament chain was mired in price wars due to overcapacity, with PTA once losing 200 yuan per ton. But in 2026, there was no new PTA capacity, and backward capacity at home and abroad accelerated its exit, expanding the market share of leading companies. The dual carbon policy tightened the approval of new capacity, substantially improving the supply-demand balance.
The Industrial Logic Restructuring Behind Performance
The common reason for the six giants' performance surge lies in the concentrated release of the 'refining-chemical integration + full industrial chain' advantage. Hengli has built core capacities such as 20 million tons/year refining-chemical integration, 6 million tons/year coal chemical, and 16.6 million tons/year PTA, with the entire chain operating at high load. Rongsheng relies on the world's largest refining-chemical integration unit to improve operational efficiency through technological transformation. Shenghong has PX capacity of 2.8 million tons/year and PTA capacity of 6.3 million tons/year, with total aromatic chain capacity exceeding 10 million tons. Tongkun's processing spread for PTA and polyester filament has significantly recovered, and the profitability of its associated Zhejiang Petrochemical has improved markedly. Xinfengming benefits from the self-discipline production reduction consensus reached by leading companies at the end of 2025, actively reducing the operating rate of POY and FDY. This means that for downstream buyers, raw material prices will face continuous upward pressure; for foreign trade enterprises, the global competitiveness of Chinese polyester products will be further strengthened under cost advantages.
Transmission Effects on the Industry Chain
The concentration of profits at the top will further accelerate industry reshuffling. Small and medium-sized polyester enterprises, lacking refining-chemical integration support, will have their living space squeezed when raw material costs are high. At the same time, PTA and polyester filament prices will rise with oil price fluctuations, significantly increasing cost pressures for downstream weaving, dyeing, and garment companies. However, on the other hand, the bargaining power of Chinese polyester leaders in the global supply chain is also improving. Hengyi's Brunei Phase II and coal-to-ethylene glycol projects are progressing steadily, and its layout in the waste textile track promises future profit growth. Shenghong is deeply involved in new energy and new material businesses, with product added value continuously improving. This means that profit distribution in the industry chain is shifting from 'intermediate processing' to both ends: 'upstream raw materials + downstream high-value-added products'.
The Ongoing Game Between Geopolitical Risks and Anti-Involution
Currently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become tense again, and there is potential for a second rise in crude oil prices. The industry's 'anti-involution' has not stopped, and the situation of no new PTA capacity will not change in the short term. Institutional research reports indicate that the current round of industry expansion is nearing its end, and the supply-demand balance is expected to improve further. However, it should be noted that if oil prices remain high for a long time, downstream textile and apparel end consumption may be suppressed, thereby inversely restraining polyester demand. Additionally, Tongkun reminded in its performance forecast that the relevant operating data of Zhejiang Petrochemical has not been audited and may be adjusted, bringing uncertainty to the accuracy of the performance.