Polyester filament prices are experiencing a new round of moderate increases, with daily rises of 50 to 100 yuan per ton. Compared to the post-Spring Festival volatility, which saw single-day spikes of up to 1,500 yuan per ton, the current pace is noticeably slower, and weaving mills are showing greater resilience.
However, the core driver behind this raw material movement is not domestic supply-demand dynamics but the second closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has tightened global energy chains.
Limited Crude Restocking Window, Huge Supply Gap
After the first blockade early this year was lifted, Asian countries attempted to replenish crude inventories during a brief passage window. According to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, from June 18 to July 5, an average of about 28 ships passed through the strait daily, far below the pre-conflict average of 130 to 138.
In the five days after the agreement, approximately 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iranian ports. Iran claims to have exported 40 million barrels at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. US data shows that since early May, the US military has escorted over 800 commercial vessels, transporting about 400 million barrels. Yet the International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of ships and about 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.
These figures clearly indicate that the supply gap caused by the blockade has not been effectively filled. Asian countries' restocking was limited, and the new blockade has further tightened supply.
Short-Term Order Dividend, Long-Term Risks
In the short term, this energy crisis has brought a significant order reshoring effect to China's textile industry. Southeast Asian countries, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy, have seen production disrupted, while China, with its stable energy supply and complete industrial chain, has absorbed overseas orders demanding reliability and timeliness.
Customs data released on July 14 confirms this trend: textile and apparel exports in June grew 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. Textile exports specifically rose 12.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month; apparel exports grew 3.2% and 21%, respectively. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4%.
But long-term risks are building. Continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will exacerbate global inflation. As crude is the foundation of modern industry, a major shortage threatens economic order in many countries. China has reduced its reliance on imported crude through new energy and coal chemical development, but most nations lack this capability.
More concerning, if rising oil prices fuel US inflation, the Fed may be forced to hike rates further, tightening global liquidity. China's textile industry is highly dependent on foreign trade, making it vulnerable to global economic turmoil.
Industry Response: From Passive Pressure to Proactive Resilience
Facing dual uncertainties of geopolitics and energy prices, textile companies must shift from short-term speculation to long-term competitiveness.
For Buyers - Monitor crude and PTA futures trends, lock in forward orders when prices dip to avoid chasing rallies. - Evaluate suppliers' energy stability and raw material inventory management, prioritizing those with coal chemical or new energy backup.
For Exporters - Use the current order reshoring window to optimize client mix, increasing share of high-value orders from Europe and the US. - Build multi-source procurement plans to reduce dependence on single raw materials or transport routes, enhancing supply chain resilience. - Track Fed policy moves and hedge currency risks in advance to avoid exchange losses from dollar liquidity shifts.
Polyester price fluctuations are merely a surface phenomenon. The real story is the deep restructuring of global energy maps and trade patterns. For the textile industry, the true challenge is not price volatility itself, but how to build sustainable competitive advantages in an uncertain environment.