The export numbers are bright, but textile business owners aren't smiling.
In June 2026, China's textile and apparel exports hit $29.27 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year and an even sharper 14.3% month-on-month. But beneath the surface, textile exports rose 12.2% while apparel exports grew only 3.2%—meaning the export surge is more about 'selling raw materials' than 'selling finished garments'.
The Logic Behind the Export Rebound
This June rebound is the result of three forces. First, the May China-US summit led to a $30 billion tariff reduction agreement, releasing orders previously held back by uncertainty. Second, European and US retailers advanced their autumn/winter procurement cycles by at least a month, driving a 21% month-on-month surge in apparel exports. Third, the first half of 2026 saw cumulative exports of $145.96 billion, up just 1.4%, indicating that the first five months were essentially 'bottoming out'.
The supply chain synergy effect is also at play. Textile exports grew 3.5% in H1, outpacing apparel's modest growth, providing a buffer for downstream recovery. But if this 'raw materials first' trend persists, it could evolve into reverse inventory pressure.
The Cost 'Gray Rhino' Is Already Charging
The backdrop to the export recovery is a simultaneous cost surge. The July 1 attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz triggered an oil price spike, with Brent crude breaching $75/bbl and reaching $76.01/bbl by July 10. Compared to the 2026 Brent average forecast of $53-63/bbl, current prices exceed the upper limit by over 20%.
Oil prices quickly transmitted to the chemical fiber chain. On July 14, PTA rose 2.14% to 6,024.5 yuan/ton, up 25.78% year-on-year; polyester POY hit 8,168.75 yuan/ton, up 17.64%; polyester DTY hit 9,218.75 yuan/ton, up 13.90%. The oil-to-PX-to-PTA-to-polyester filament price chain is fully activated.
More notably, polyester filament leaders have shifted from 'passive price following' to 'active price support' this year, through coordinated production cuts and inventory control. This makes filament prices more resilient, but also means that once low-cost raw material inventories are exhausted downstream, the entire chain may face synchronized production cuts.
H2 Outlook: Peak Season Expectations vs. Structural Contradictions
In the second half of the year, polyester filament demand accounts for over 60% of annual consumption. June exports have already signaled autumn/winter restocking. If overseas orders continue, weaving mill operating rates could recover from the current 52.85%. But grey fabric inventories have risen to 31.68 days, and conventional fabric orders remain weak. If end-consumer demand disappoints, a structural contradiction of 'upstream price hikes, downstream sluggish sales' may emerge.
For PTA, no new capacity is planned for 2026, with only one new unit each in 2027 and 2028. July sees multiple plant maintenance cycles, pushing inventory to yearly lows and supporting filament prices. But oil price uncertainty remains the biggest variable—a de-escalation of geopolitical risks could trigger a price correction, while further conflict would amplify cost pressure downstream.