On July 15, a warning signal emerged in the chemical fiber market: the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament yarn enterprises stood at just 42.3%, a sharp decline of 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, only about 42 tons were absorbed by the market, with the remainder directly converting into inventory. For an industry long reliant on high turnover, this is a clear sign that the supply-demand balance is tipping.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
Breaking down the data from 24 surveyed enterprises, five recorded ratios below 30%, including one with zero sales. Only one achieved 100%, and two others exceeded 60%. This extreme divergence indicates that demand is not collapsing across the board but is instead concentrating among a few suppliers with price or service advantages. Industry data reveals that downstream weaving mills have adopted a 'hand-to-mouth' purchasing strategy, showing minimal willingness to build inventory.
This cautious sentiment is not isolated. Since July, multiple segments of the polyester chain have felt the chill from weak end-demand. Garment exporters face high overseas inventories, while the domestic market struggles with a slow consumption recovery, leading to shrinking orders for fabrics and greige goods. As an intermediate product, polyester filament yarn's volatile sales ratio often acts as the first pressure valve transmitting downstream weakness upstream.
Dual Pressure from Costs and Inventory
Low sales ratios directly lead to rapid inventory accumulation at factories. For chemical fiber producers, high inventories mean greater capital tie-up and higher warehousing costs. Simultaneously, volatility in upstream raw materials like crude oil and PTA has increased cost uncertainty. Rising raw material prices could turn high inventories into potential gains, but if costs decline, stockpiled goods face devaluation risks.
The current ratio of 42.3% is well below the industry safety line of 60%. If this trend persists for more than a week without improvement, some producers will likely be forced to cut output or schedule maintenance to stabilize supply and prices. Historical patterns show that five consecutive trading days with ratios below 50% often precede a new industry-wide production cut cycle.
Chain Reactions in Industrial Clusters
Major polyester filament production hubs—such as Tongxiang, Xiaoshan, and Shaoxing in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu—are bearing the brunt. Chemical fiber companies in these regions face mounting sales pressure, with some small-to-medium factories already lowering ex-factory quotes to stimulate volume. However, downstream weaving mills remain unimpressed: without a tangible recovery in orders, price discounts alone cannot trigger large-scale buying.
From a broader perspective, the decline in polyester filament yarn sales ratios also reflects the intensifying supply-demand contradiction during the traditional off-season following the 'golden March-April' peak. The period from late July to August is the conventional maintenance season for the textile industry, and also a window for downstream restocking. If sales ratios fail to recover by then, chemical fiber enterprises will face even more severe operational challenges.