On July 15, the polyester filament yarn market experienced a significant decline in transaction data. Public industry data shows the average sales-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 42.3%, a sharp drop of 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure falls below the industry break-even line and sets a new recent low, meaning more than half of the day's output failed to convert into effective sales.
Divergence in Sales Data
Looking at specific sample data, performance varied dramatically across enterprises. Among the 23 companies surveyed, the lowest sales-production ratio was 0%, while the highest reached 160%. Only two companies exceeded 100%, three were in the 70%-100% range, and the remaining 18 were below 60%, with most concentrated in the 20%-40% low range. This extreme divergence suggests that a few companies achieved destocking through special channels or pricing strategies, but the overall demand base is extremely weak.
Notably, the company with a 160% ratio likely employed aggressive measures such as low-price promotions or extended credit terms. For buyers, such short-term volume spikes often carry subsequent price correction risks and should not be blindly followed.
Downstream Wait-and-See Sentiment Dominates
As a textile intermediate, the sales-production ratio of polyester filament yarn directly reflects the procurement willingness of downstream weaving mills. The current 42.3% ratio indicates that downstream users are generally adopting a just-in-time procurement strategy, unwilling to build raw material inventories. This behavior stems from persistently weak end-use garment orders—overseas retail inventory destocking is slow, and domestic consumption recovery is weaker than expected, keeping weaving mill operating rates low.
From a chain perspective, polyester filament yarn prices have been under pressure for weeks. Although upstream PTA and MEG raw material prices fluctuate, cost support is limited because demand-side weakness prevents cost pass-through. This suggests that in the short term, polyester filament yarn prices may continue to decline to stimulate restocking demand.
Ripple Effects on Chemical Fiber Industrial Zones
The impact of this sales data on major chemical fiber clusters cannot be ignored. In key production areas like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, enterprise inventory pressure is accumulating. Some small and medium polyester plants may be forced to reduce operating rates or even shut down for maintenance to alleviate supply-demand imbalances. Meanwhile, speculative stocking by traders has virtually disappeared, further tightening market liquidity.
For upstream PTA plants, the slump in polyester filament yarn will directly suppress PTA demand, potentially triggering a new round of price negotiation across the chain. If the sales-production ratio remains below 50% for more than a week, polyester sector production cuts will intensify significantly, affecting operating rates across the PX-PTA-polyester filament yarn chain.
Short-Term Outlook and Strategic Advice
Historically, July-August is typically a textile off-season, but this year's off-season effect combined with export pressures has made sales data particularly weak. It is expected that the polyester filament yarn sales-production ratio will hover in the 40%-50% range for the next two weeks, unless large-scale production cuts or a pulse rebound in end-use orders occur.