On July 21, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn (PFY) among sample enterprises fell to 38.2%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of PFY produced that day, only about 38 tons found buyers. For an industry characterized by large-scale production, this ratio is approaching a warning threshold.
What the Sales Data Reveals
Looking at the publicly available sales data from sample enterprises, most companies recorded ratios between 20% and 40%, with a few hitting extreme lows of 0% and 10%. Only one firm achieved 80%, but a single outlier does not change the overall picture. This distribution indicates a sharp contraction in buyer demand and accelerating inventory buildup among sellers.
More notably, this data emerged even as PFY producers adopted a mixed pricing strategy—some offering slight discounts to stimulate sales, but with limited effect. Downstream users' resistance to high prices has shifted from verbal complaints to concrete actions: purchasing only for essential needs, reducing stockpiles, and extending order cycles.
Transmission Along the Chain: From Resistance to Wait-and-See
PFY sits in the middle of the chemical fiber supply chain, upstream of PTA and MEG costs and downstream of weaving, dyeing, and apparel fabric companies. When the sales-to-production ratio continues to decline, it means that inventory pressure in the midstream cannot be effectively passed downstream.
For downstream weaving mills, the core dilemma is this: raw material prices, while slightly easing in some areas, remain relatively high overall, while the recovery in final garment orders has not kept pace. Weaving mills prefer to maintain low operating rates and digest existing inventories rather than buying at elevated prices. The mentality of 'buying on rising, not falling' is actually reinforced during early price declines—buyers expect even lower prices and delay purchasing decisions further.
This behavior feeds back upstream, deepening the wait-and-see attitude among PFY producers. Producers dare not cut prices sharply for fear of industry-wide losses, nor can they raise prices to pass on costs. They can only test the market with mixed pricing moves, waiting for clearer direction.
Turning Point for Inventory Reduction and Price Games
The typical inventory cycle in the chemical fiber industry is three to four weeks. When the sales-to-production ratio remains below 40% for an extended period, inventories will quickly build to warning levels. Once inventories exceed the safety line, producers will face pressure to cut prices. Current data suggests that if the ratio does not recover above 50% within the next week, a systematic price correction in PFY could occur.
However, the room for price cuts is also constrained by upstream raw material costs. PTA and MEG prices, influenced by international oil prices and PX supply-demand dynamics, are unlikely to fall sharply in the short term. This means PFY profit margins will be squeezed from both sides: downstream refuses high prices, upstream does not offer concessions, and the midstream is left to absorb the pain.
From a broader perspective, this decline in the sales-to-production ratio is not an isolated event. In the first half of 2026, the chemical fiber industry experienced a mismatch between capacity expansion and demand recovery. While some leading companies achieved performance growth through scale advantages, smaller players are seeing their survival space shrink. The sales-to-production data is a real-time reflection of this structural divergence.