Brent crude oil broke through $90 per barrel, Iran launched missile attacks on US military bases, and navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz surged—multiple geopolitical black swan events have directly pushed up global energy costs. The domestic polyester filament yarn (PFY) industry subsequently initiated a new round of price hikes, with major manufacturers raising quotes by 50 to 150 yuan per ton. The sustainability of this price increase has become a core topic of discussion across the textile supply chain.
Cost-Driven: Every $10 Rise in Oil Adds ~400 Yuan to PFY Costs
From a chain transmission perspective, the fundamental support for this round of PFY price increases comes from rigid cost-side rises. The key raw materials for PFY are PTA and MEG, both direct downstream products of crude oil, with oil costs accounting for over 70% of total PFY production costs. Public industry data indicates that for every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil, PFY production costs rise by approximately 350 to 450 yuan per ton.
The current oil price surge is not merely driven by OPEC+ production cut expectations but primarily by supply contraction premiums due to Middle East geopolitical conflicts. The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly one-third of global seaborne oil trade; any disruption could create a million-barrel-level supply gap. This extreme supply expectation has pushed oil prices higher, directly transmitting cost pressures to the chemical fiber chain.
Demand Side Support: Peak Season Stockpiling Sentiment Rises
Beyond cost drivers, seasonal demand recovery provides fundamental support for the price hike. Following traditional textile industry rhythms, the third to fourth quarters mark the 'Golden September and Silver October' peak season, with downstream apparel brands gradually placing autumn/winter orders and weaving sector operating rates recovering.
In the first half of this year, PFY prices trended downward, prompting midstream and downstream weaving enterprises to maintain low raw material inventories. After months of destocking, grey fabric inventories have fallen to multi-year lows. Facing expectations of cost increases, these enterprises have significantly boosted stockpiling enthusiasm, absorbing upstream price transmission to some extent and giving PFY manufacturers confidence to hold prices.
Outlook: Short-Term Strong, Medium-Term Divergent
Looking ahead, a pattern of short-term strength and medium-term divergence is likely. In the short term, unless Middle East tensions substantively ease, international oil prices will remain high or rise further. Cost support will leave room for PFY price increases, especially for varieties like FDY with stronger downstream demand.
However, medium-term risks are evident: if geopolitical conflicts de-escalate, oil prices could fall sharply, weakening cost support. Meanwhile, if downstream end-users cannot absorb high raw material costs, order transmission may stall, leading some enterprises to pause stockpiling and triggering correction pressure after excessive price hikes.
Overall, PFY is in an upward cycle driven by both costs and peak season expectations. Short-term strength is highly certain, but industry participants must remain vigilant to sudden geopolitical volatility, manage inventory levels rationally, and avoid blind chasing of prices.