The sales data for July 22 sends a warning to the polyester filament yarn market. The average sales-to-output ratio among sample enterprises was only 43.1%, up 4.9 percentage points from the previous day but still well below the industry's recognized 'warning line'. This means for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, only 43 tons were actually sold, with the remaining 57 tons turning into inventory. For chemical fiber companies reliant on high turnover, this figure directly signals dual pressure on capital occupation and warehousing costs.
Signals from the Sales-to-Output Data
Looking at individual enterprise data, the ratio varied significantly: the lowest was 0%, while the highest reached 80%. Among 25 sample companies, over 60% had ratios below 30%, and only four exceeded 50%. This 'long-tail distribution' indicates that not all firms face the same plight—top players maintain some shipments through customer loyalty and product differentiation, but small and medium factories are already stuck in a 'hard-to-sell' dilemma.
Notably, there were signs of partial recovery in some areas, with a few enterprises seeing ratios jump from 15% to 70% or 80%. However, this 'pulse-like' recovery was more driven by rigid demand restocking rather than substantial expansion in demand. Downstream weaving factories generally adopt a 'buy as needed' strategy, reluctant to build extra inventory, reflecting expectations of weaker future prices.
Squeeze Between Upstream Costs and Downstream Demand
The current polyester filament yarn market is in a high-level consolidation phase, with upstream PTA and MEG prices remaining strong, providing cost support. However, downstream textile and garment orders are entering the traditional off-season, with weaving machine operating rates already falling from their June peak. The cost push and demand weakness create a 'scissors gap', making it difficult for polyester filament yarn prices to pass through smoothly.
From a profit chain perspective, upstream polyester factories' margins are being compressed, while downstream weaving firms face a 'buy on rising, not on falling' wait-and-see attitude. If sales ratios stay below 50%, the likelihood of factories being forced to cut prices to destock will increase significantly. This could trigger a chain reaction across the entire chemical fiber pricing system—especially for conventional grades like POY, FDY, and DTY, which may face a new round of price negotiations.
Inventory Clearance May Extend to End of Q3
Combining sales trends since July, polyester filament yarn inventories have been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. Average inventory days among sample enterprises have risen from 12 days at the start of the month to over 18 days now. If the sales ratio cannot recover above 60%, the inventory clearance cycle may extend to the end of Q3, potentially affecting the stocking pace for the peak 'Golden September and Silver October' season.
For buyers, now is not the time to bottom-fish. The supply-demand contradiction has not yet cleared, and prices still have room to fall. It is recommended to closely monitor mid-August operating rate changes and signs of end-order recovery, then consider phased procurement.