Polyester Filament Sales Plummet: Industrial Transmission Under Geopolitical Easing and Cost Collapse

On July 27, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn among sample enterprises plummeted to 25.4%, a 20-percentage-point drop from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons produced, only about 25 tons were actually sold, significantly amplifying inventory pressure in a single day.

Background

Industry data shows that the sales rate ranged from 0% to 40%, with two enterprises reporting zero sales and the highest only reaching 40%. Over half of the enterprises hovered between 20% and 30%, reflecting an overall frozen trading atmosphere.

The direct trigger came from upstream: polymerization costs crashed sharply. Eased geopolitical tensions led to a rapid decline in international crude oil and related chemical feedstock prices, removing cost support for the polyester chain. As an intermediate product, polyester filament's price expectations softened, prompting buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with inquiries sparse and transactions rare.

Industry Impact

The sales rate is a core leading indicator of supply-demand balance in the chemical fiber sector. A 25.4% rate implies a rapid extension of inventory turnover days. For small and medium chemical fiber enterprises with tight cash flow, this acts as a stress test: falling raw material costs combined with sluggish finished product sales squeeze profit margins from both ends.

Looking at the transmission chain, downstream weaving and fabric enterprises are the buyers. When they see a downward trend in upstream prices, they naturally delay replenishment in anticipation of even lower prices. This 'buy on rising, not falling' psychology is particularly pronounced in the polyester chain—once a cost collapse expectation forms, inventory destocking cascades from the terminal back to upstream, creating a negative feedback loop.

Notably, leading chemical fiber companies had previously reported doubled half-year profits, mainly driven by rapid inventory destocking and demand recovery. This sales rate plunge may interrupt that momentum. If the cost downtrend continues due to geopolitical easing, the industry's profit recovery in Q3 will face challenges.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Adopt a 'small batch, quick purchase' strategy to avoid large fixed-price orders. The cost downtrend hasn't bottomed out; phased buying can lower average price risk. - Monitor the linkage between polymerization costs and crude oil futures. When crude drops over 3% in a single day, polyester filament quotes usually lag by 1-2 trading days, offering negotiation opportunities. - Align your own inventory levels with the sample enterprise sales rate data. If you have more than 10 days of production stock, consider delaying replenishment.

For Foreign Trade Companies - Build cost fluctuation buffers into export order pricing. Consider adding price adjustment clauses in contracts to cover raw material swings exceeding 5%. - Monitor US tariff policy shifts (e.g., 'disguised' adjustments), as chemical fiber products may face dual pressure: falling raw material prices and trade barriers. - Prioritize high-margin orders during the current domestic market wait-and-see period, avoiding long-term fixed-price contracts in a downward price channel.