PTA plunged over 5% in a single day, with select polyester filament grades seeing price cuts of 50 to 100 yuan per ton. This price volatility is directly linked to short-term sentiment shifts in the international crude oil market—the US postponement of expanded military strikes on Iran has temporarily eased concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East, pulling Brent crude back from above $100 to around $90. However, for the downstream textile industry, this does not signal a genuine relief in cost pressure.
Upstream: Limited Room for Price Cuts, Promotional Rather Than Trend-Driven
The price adjustments by polyester plants are more tactical promotions following crude oil sentiment rather than a trend reversal. Public industry data shows current domestic polyester filament operating rates at just 74.39%, indicating that supply is not running at full capacity. Meanwhile, downstream texturing machine utilization rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region stand at 61.93%, and weaving operating rates hover around 50%. Production and sales are roughly balanced, leaving polyester plants with no significant inventory pressure. Without the need to destock, the incentive for substantial price cuts is weak.
From an industrial chain perspective, the price anchor for polyester raw materials remains the medium-term trajectory of crude oil. Although the US currently faces constraints in missile reserves, maintaining a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz requires far fewer munitions than a large-scale strike, making a sharp, sustained drop in oil prices unlikely. The dwindling trust between the US and Iran, after the breakdown of the previous memorandum of understanding, means a new round of negotiations will not be reached quickly, and strait shipping capacity will remain constrained during this period. The unpredictability of Trump's policy stance adds further uncertainty to oil price trends.
Dye Costs: More Rigid Transmission Than Polyester
Unlike the promotional nature of polyester filament price cuts, dye price increases are proving more rigid. Dispersed black dye has been raised twice within a month, accumulating a total increase of 5,000 yuan per ton. Dyeing factories in Shaoxing have issued price hike notices, effective August 1, with light-to-medium colors rising 100 to 300 yuan per ton and dark colors rising 300 to 500 yuan per ton. The logic for dyes mirrors that of polyester filament—upstream giants leverage high industry concentration to control pricing, leaving downstream weaving and dyeing mills with no choice but to passively absorb the increases.
The rigid rise in dyeing fees further compresses the profit margins of weaving enterprises. For mills already facing cost inversions on basic fabrics, the incremental impact of raw material price fluctuations is becoming muted. Amid weak off-season demand, an increasing number of weaving mills are opting to reduce output or take holidays, attempting to destock and wait for a market inflection point by lowering operating rates.
Weaving Sector: Buying Time by Cutting Output
The core contradiction for the weaving sector is clear: raw material costs remain elevated, while end-order prices cannot be passed down synchronously. Even when polyester filament is discounted, the reduction of only 50 to 100 yuan per ton is negligible against already inverted cost structures. The rigid increase in dyeing fees further erodes already thin processing margins.
Faced with this situation, the rational choice for weaving mills is to proactively lower operating rates. The current 50% weaving utilization rate means nearly half of production capacity is idle—this is not merely a seasonal adjustment but a forced response to cost inversion. By reducing output and cutting procurement, mills aim to consume existing high-cost raw material inventories, essentially buying time until the upstream side shows clearer signs of a correction.