International crude oil prices fell back from above $100 to around $90 after the US postponed expanded military strikes against Iran due to ammunition shortages, easing market fears of supply disruption. PTA plunged over 5% in a single day, and some polyester mills cut polyester filament prices by 50 to 100 yuan per ton. However, this short-term drop in raw material prices does not mean the cost pressure on textile enterprises has truly been lifted.
Dye prices remain elevated: disperse black dye has risen twice in a month, accumulating a total increase of 5,000 yuan per ton. Dyeing mills in Shaoxing have issued price adjustment notices effective August 1, with light-to-medium colors rising 100-300 yuan per ton and dark colors rising 300-500 yuan per ton. This means the hidden costs in the fabric processing stage continue to climb.
Geopolitical Events and Raw Material Costs: Short-Term Easing, Long-Term Resilience
News of US ammunition shortages quickly transmitted through the market, pushing oil prices down from $100 to the $90 range and dragging PTA prices lower. However, one must be cautious: geopolitical "elasticity" is far greater than market expectations. Trust between the US and Iran has been largely exhausted after the breakdown of the memorandum of understanding, making new negotiations take longer. Even if the US military is short on munitions, maintaining a blockade of key straits requires relatively few munitions; if oil tanker exit routes are blocked, oil prices could rebound sharply.
The Trump administration's history of inconsistent statements also makes crude oil trends difficult to predict—showing strength one day and retreating the next. This uncertainty suggests oil prices are more likely to enter a volatile range rather than a one-way decline. For polyester raw materials, this means polyester filament prices may see periodic promotions amid oil price fluctuations but will generally remain prone to increases rather than decreases.
Industry Chain Bargaining Structure: Upstream Control, Downstream Pressure
Current polyester plant operating rates stand at 74.39%, not particularly high; downstream Jiangsu-Zhejiang texturing machine utilization is around 61.93%, and weaving utilization is about 50%. Upstream and downstream operating rates are roughly matched, with production and sales nearly balanced, leaving polyester mills with little incentive to cut prices to reduce inventory. The core reason is that both polyester filament and dye segments are controlled by a few leading companies that can adjust production and shipments to protect margins.
Weaving and dyeing mills sit at the end of the bargaining chain: they must accept raw material price increases but may not enjoy corresponding decreases. Some basic fabric costs have already inverted, and weaving enterprises are choosing to reduce production or take holidays to trade time for space, waiting for market supply and demand to rebalance.