On July 28, the polyester filament yarn market saw sluggish trading, with sample enterprises' average sales-to-production ratio at only 28.2%, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous day. Behind this data lies persistent downstream resistance to high prices—purchases were almost entirely limited to rigid demand restocking, with speculative hoarding nearly absent. More notably, beneath the 28.2% average, individual enterprise performance diverged sharply: some achieved ratios as high as 45%, while others recorded 0%, indicating structural divergence rather than overall market weakness.
Signals from Sales Data
Among the 29 sample enterprises surveyed that day, only 8 (27.6%) had sales-to-production ratios above 30%, while 12 (41.4%) were below 20%. Most ratios clustered in the 10%-30% range, reflecting sluggish shipment pace for the majority. Compared to July 27 data, the ratio rose slightly from 25.4% to 28.2%, but the increase came mainly from promotional discounts by a few low-price enterprises, not a genuine demand recovery.
- Two enterprises recorded 45% ratios, likely those offering price concessions
- One enterprise had 0%, possibly due to price misalignment or maintenance shutdowns
- The median was about 22.5%, far below the normal industry level of 50%-70%
High-price resistance is the market's main contradiction. Polyester filament yarn prices have remained elevated since June, but downstream textile orders haven't kept pace, squeezing weaving mills' margins. Consequently, buyers have reduced raw material inventory days from the typical 7-10 to 3-5, hedging against price correction risks.
Pressure Along the Industrial Chain
The price transmission mechanism in the chemical fiber chain is under severe strain. Upstream PTA and MEG remain high due to crude oil cost support, forcing polyester filament yarn producers to maintain high quotes to protect margins. But downstream weaving and dyeing sectors have reached a tipping point in acceptance.
Regional industrial clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan—major polyester filament yarn consumption hubs—have seen slight declines in loom operating rates. Some small and medium-sized weaving mills are cutting production or shifting to differentiated products to cope with raw material cost pressure. This 'buying time' strategy will further depress chemical fiber enterprises' sales ratios in the short term.
Notably, weak foreign trade orders exacerbate this contradiction. The U.S. Trade Representative recently stated that tariffs on China would not exceed 20%, but specific rules haven't been finalized. Textile foreign trade enterprises generally adopt a 'small order, quick response' model, avoiding long-term price locking. This leads to high-frequency, small-batch chemical fiber purchases, making concentrated volume releases difficult.
Market Game at a Critical Juncture
The current chemical fiber market is in a stalemate between upstream and downstream players. Upstream factory inventory pressure is mounting—sample enterprises' sales ratios consistently below 30% mean over 70% of daily output becomes inventory. If this persists for more than two weeks, some enterprises may be forced to cut prices to destock.
For downstream buyers, risk control should be the primary objective in the near term. Chemical fiber prices lack strong upward momentum but are also limited in downside due to cost support, likely maintaining a narrow range.