28.2% – that was the average sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament yarn sample enterprises on July 28. Up just 2.8 percentage points from the previous trading day, it remains stuck in the year's low range. When only a handful of the 40 sample companies achieved a 45% sales rate, and the rest hovered between 10% and 30%, the industry must recognize not a one-day fluctuation but a fundamental reset in downstream procurement logic.
The Real Supply-Demand Picture Behind the Data
According to publicly available data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the value-added industrial output growth rate of the textile industry slowed to 3.1% in the first half of 2024, down 1.7 percentage points from the same period last year. Weak demand in the end-use apparel market has directly suppressed raw material purchasing intentions in the weaving stage. As an intermediate product, polyester filament yarn’s sales rate has become a sensitive indicator of chain health. Among the July 28 data, only about 25% of sample enterprises achieved a sales rate above 30%, while low values like 0% and 10% appeared frequently, signaling that downstream users are not short of cash but are explicitly rejecting current price levels.
Structural Roots of Downstream Resistance
This resistance is not a short-term emotional reaction. On the cost side, PTA and MEG prices remained high and volatile in July, giving polyester plants a strong incentive to hold prices firm. However, weaving mills face a dual squeeze: insufficient orders and high finished product inventories. Taking major weaving clusters like Shengze and Changxing as examples, the comprehensive operating rate of water-jet looms has dropped from 78% in April to around 65% in mid-July. Lower operating rates directly mean reduced raw material consumption, making demand-driven procurement the only viable strategy for weavers.
Transmission Effects on Chemical Fiber Enterprises
A sustained sales rate below 30% most directly impacts polyester filament yarn producers through inventory buildup. By industry estimates, sample enterprises’ inventory days have risen from 12 days at end-June to about 18 days by end-July. Rising inventories tie up working capital, forcing some polyester plants to resort to price cuts or hidden rebates to stimulate turnover. However, such a “price-for-volume” strategy has limited effect in a low-sales-rate environment – downstream buyers’ “buy on rising, not falling” psychology actually reinforces wait-and-see behavior.
Regional Divergence in Industrial Belt Reactions
Notably, downstream purchasing behavior is diverging across regions. In the Xiaoshan-Shaoxing area, where export orders are relatively stable, polyester filament yarn purchase frequency remains at 1-2 times per week, but the average purchase volume per order has shrunk about 15% year-on-year. In the Changle area of Fujian, where warp knitting machine operating rates have fallen more sharply, the procurement cycle has extended to over 10 days. This regional divergence means chemical fiber enterprises can no longer use a one-size-fits-all sales strategy; they must tailor settlement and supply plans to the order pace and cash flow conditions of different industrial clusters.