Oil prices have just broken through the $100 mark and then quickly retreated, with PTA plunging over 5% in a single day and some polyester plants cutting yarn prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. This raw material side brake, on the surface, stems from easing geopolitical tensions, but the cost transmission mechanism within the industry chain is far more complex than it appears.
Background: The Link Between Geopolitics and Crude Oil
The news that the US postponed expanding military strikes against Iran directly triggered a sharp drop in international crude oil futures, with a single-day decline of over 6%. The reason lies in the Pentagon's dwindling inventory of air defense interceptor missiles, temporarily suppressing the risk of war escalation. This change eased market panic over a potential supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, pulling oil prices back from $100 to around $90.
However, the impact of geopolitics on crude oil is never ended by a single event. The remaining trust between the US and Iran has been shattered, and renegotiation will take longer. During this period, the restricted shipping capacity in the strait is unlikely to change fundamentally, and oil prices are likely to remain volatile—Trump's erratic policy-making adds further uncertainty to future trends.
Industry Impact: Two Paths of Upstream Cost Transmission
The drop in crude oil prices did not directly translate into sustained price cuts for polyester raw materials. PTA's short-term plunge was more of an emotional reaction, and adjustments in polyester filament yarn prices were only seen in promotional sales of certain specifications. Industry public data shows that the operating rate of domestic direct-spun polyester filament yarn remains at 74.39%, a relatively low level, meaning polyester plants have no significant destocking pressure and little incentive to lower prices.
On the other hand, disperse black dye has been raised twice within a month, with a cumulative increase of 5,000 yuan/ton. Dyeing factories in Shaoxing have already issued price hike notices for August: light-medium colors up by 100-300 yuan/ton, and dark colors up by 300-500 yuan/ton. The logic behind dyes and polyester yarn is similar—upstream giants effectively control profits through industry bargaining power, while downstream weaving and dyeing plants can only passively accept prices.
Downstream Reality: The Difficult Choice of Buying Time
Currently, the comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is only 61.93%, and the weaving operating rate is around 50%. Many basic fabric varieties have already experienced cost inversion, and whether raw material prices rise or fall makes little practical difference to weaving companies. Amid weak off-season orders, more and more companies are choosing to cut production and shut down, attempting to buy time.
The feasibility of this strategy depends on two variables: first, whether crude oil can enter a unilateral downtrend, thereby driving a real correction in polyester raw materials; second, when end-demand will recover. Currently, neither is optimistic. The volatile oil price pattern means raw material costs are likely to be sticky on the high side, while the destocking cycle in European and American markets is not yet over, and the recovery of foreign trade orders still needs time.