On July 29, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises reached 47.6%, a sharp increase of 19.4 percentage points from the previous trading day. While this figure suggests a recovery, a deeper breakdown reveals no fundamental reversal in downstream demand.
Market Divergence Behind the Data
Public data from 25 sampled companies shows extremely wide distribution: the lowest ratio was only 20%, while the highest reached 80%. Most companies clustered between 30% and 45%, with only a few exceeding 60% or even 80%. This divergence indicates that promotional strategies were not universally effective, but concentrated on a few sales windows.
Industry open data shows that polyester filament manufacturers offered discounts, but the intensity was limited, leading to weak buying sentiment among downstream users. The partial recovery in sales was more about concentrated restocking for essential needs than a trend reversal. Overall trading remained subdued.
Why Promotions Failed?
The current period is a traditional off-season for textiles, with weaving mills operating at low utilization rates and adopting a just-in-time procurement approach. Polyester filament makers tried to stimulate stockpiling through price cuts, but the discounts were insufficient to attract large-scale hoarding. Downstream feedback indicates no significant increase in end orders, with gray fabric inventory pressure still high, prompting mills to maintain low raw material inventories.
This means the short-term jump in the sales ratio is more about redistribution of channel inventory rather than pull from end consumption. Unless end orders improve substantially, the effect of promotions will weaken further.
Transmission Impact on the Supply Chain
A prolonged sales-to-production ratio below 50% will directly increase finished product inventory at polyester plants. Accumulated inventory pressure may force upstream PTA and MEG prices lower. Conversely, if raw material prices remain weak, the cost support for polyester filament erodes, forming a negative cycle.
For downstream weaving mills, the current low raw material price window deserves attention. However, if order books are thin, blindly building inventory may lead to capital tie-up and price depreciation risks.