47.6%—that was the average sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament sample enterprises on July 29. Although it was up 19.4 percentage points from the previous trading day, it still failed to break the 50% threshold. More alarmingly, this data was achieved against the backdrop of active promotional sales by manufacturers. With limited discounts and weak downstream buying sentiment, local sales recovered somewhat, but overall transactions remained flat.
Market Signals Behind the Data
Looking at the sales data from 25 sample enterprises released that day, the distribution was highly uneven: the highest was 80%, while the lowest was only 20%. Only seven enterprises achieved a sales rate above 50%, accounting for less than 30% of the total; 12 enterprises had rates below 40%, nearly half. This divergence indicates that promotions failed to generate a comprehensive pull effect, and most companies still face heavy destocking pressure.
Industry public data shows that the core contradiction in the polyester filament supply chain is: upstream polyester raw material prices remain relatively firm, while downstream weaving enterprises, due to insufficient terminal orders, continue to weaken their purchasing willingness. This dual pressure of 'high costs, weak demand' has trapped polyester filament manufacturers in a dilemma where 'no promotion means no sales, but promotion squeezes profits.'
Off-Season Effect Meets Inventory Pressure
July is traditionally an off-season for the textile industry, with factors like high-temperature power restrictions and lower printing and dyeing capacity utilization rates combining to keep weaving mill operating rates at low levels. But this year's situation is more special—inventory accumulated during the previous peak season has not been fully digested, and new orders have yet to materialize, causing inventory levels across the entire supply chain to remain high.
Polyester filament manufacturers' promotional strategies are essentially an attempt to exchange price concessions for cash flow recovery. However, judging from actual results, downstream users are deeply hesitant. Even though some enterprises saw their sales rates recover to 60%-80%, they failed to boost overall market sentiment. This reflects weak terminal consumer demand—retail data for end products like apparel and home textiles shows no clear recovery, so weaving enterprises naturally dare not stockpile aggressively.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission and Price Expectations
The sluggish sales rate of polyester filament is now transmitting upstream and downstream simultaneously. For upstream polyester chip enterprises, poor filament sales mean raw material procurement demand may weaken further, putting pressure on chip prices. For downstream weaving enterprises, current filament prices offer some discounts, but given the possibility of further price drops, most choose 'procure as needed, buy for immediate use' rather than bulk hoarding.
This 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality is common in the textile raw material market. Once the market forms a downward price expectation, downstream procurement becomes more conservative, creating a negative feedback loop of 'the more it falls, the less they buy.' Breaking this deadlock requires either a substantial recovery in terminal demand or proactive production cuts upstream to balance supply and demand.