International oil prices experienced sharp volatility in early August, with Brent October futures falling 7.3% to $81.55 per barrel and WTI dropping below the $80 mark. However, unlike the past pattern where oil price swings directly influenced chemical fiber costs, polyester filament prices have remained almost unaffected this time, with daily fluctuations limited to 50-100 yuan per ton, and even staying flat when crude plunged. This divergence signals a structural shift in the pricing logic of the industry chain.
Event Background
On the morning of August 3, international oil prices opened sharply lower, with Brent crude October contracts posting a single-day drop of 7.3%, and WTI falling 6.25% to below $80. The direct trigger was the Trump administration's wavering signals on striking Iranian energy facilities, first saying it was 'seriously considering' military action, then announcing negotiations. Market sentiment swung between risk-off and easing, causing oil prices to fluctuate violently.
Notably, this volatility has not effectively transmitted to polyester filament. Since the last US-Iran conflict, polyester filament prices have remained in a narrow range, only slightly rising by 50-100 yuan per ton during upswings, and showing strong resilience during downturns. This 'desensitization' is not accidental, but the result of weak downstream demand and changing inventory structures.
Industry Impact
Currently, the textile industry is in its traditional off-season, with downstream weaving factories operating at less than 50% capacity. Many factories lacking stable orders have reduced or halted production. For these rigid-demand buyers, small price fluctuations in raw materials have little impact on their restocking pace; only when fluctuations become large enough to alter cost expectations will purchasing behavior be substantially suppressed.
A deeper change lies in greige fabric inventories. Due to large-scale production cuts in the weaving sector since the first half of this year, average fabric inventory at factories has dropped by more than 10 days compared to the same period last year. This inventory reduction means sellers' bargaining power is marginally strengthening—once market demand recovers, fabric prices may be pushed up before inventories are exhausted, as companies may hold back sales to raise prices. This explains why polyester filament can remain firm despite bearish cost-side factors: profit distribution along the chain is shifting from raw materials to weaving.
For buyers, this implies that the dominant 'buyer's market' of the past two years may loosen in the second half. If downstream demand picks up in late August, fabric prices will be more elastic than raw material prices, making early price locking more pragmatic than waiting for lower prices.