On August 1, the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled polyester filament makers fell to 33.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous session. This figure not only breaks below the 40% threshold but also exposes the real market temperature after the weekend restocking—when the pulse of procurement recedes, the wait-and-see sentiment across the chemical fiber chain reasserts dominance.
Market Sentiment Behind the Data
A single glance at the 33.6% average might suggest routine fluctuation. However, a closer look at the distribution of sampled enterprises reveals extreme divergence: the highest reached 60%, the lowest was zero, and more than half of the firms clustered in the 20%-30% range. This dispersion indicates that not all manufacturers are suffering equally; rather, the market is clearly bifurcated—some firms maintain decent shipments through differentiated products, while conventional specifications face severe liquidity drought.
The sales-to-output ratio measures the volume actually sold versus produced on a given day; below 100% implies inventory accumulation. Consecutive days of sub-50% ratios will directly push up finished-goods inventory days at polyester plants. By industry experience, once inventories exceed 20 days, factories are likely to resort to price cuts or production cuts to balance supply and demand, which will exert downward pressure on polyester filament prices.
The Inevitable Retreat After the Restocking Pulse
The weekend restocking pushed the ratio higher, but the August 1 retreat is no accident. Downstream weaving enterprises are mostly small and medium-sized, with tight cash flow, and their procurement strategy is "buy as needed." Weekend restocking was more of a stopgap for immediate orders than a trend-following stockpile. Once those orders were digested, buyers naturally returned to a wait-and-see stance, seeking clearer price signals.
A deeper reason lies in the lack of substantial improvement in end demand. Currently in the transitional period between slack and peak seasons, autumn/winter fabric orders have not yet been placed on a large scale, weaving utilization hovers around 60%, and the consumption of raw materials is limited. Meanwhile, the prices of polyester raw materials PTA and MEG have not fluctuated much, offering no directional guidance from the cost side, so both upstream and downstream are waiting for the other to move first.
Transmission Effects on Prices and Procurement
The most immediate impact of the declining sales-to-output ratio is that spot prices of polyester filament come under pressure. Some factories with high inventories may take the lead in cutting prices to clear stock, which could drag down the overall market center of gravity. For buyers, this is actually a window worth watching—if prices correct noticeably, say by more than 200 yuan per ton, it may be prudent to build positions in batches to lock in production costs for the mid-to-late third quarter.
For foreign trade enterprises, RMB exchange rate fluctuations and freight cost changes remain larger variables. A short-term weakening of polyester filament prices helps reduce the raw material cost of finished exports, enhancing price competitiveness. However, caution is needed against overseas clients pressing for price cuts; it is advisable to include price adjustment clauses in contracts or use forward exchange hedging tools to mitigate currency risk.