The August 4 sales data poured cold water on the chemical fiber market: the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises stood at only 30.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous trading day, with some enterprises reporting zero sales. What does this figure mean? Simply put, for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, only about 31 tons were sold, and the rest went into warehouses. Downstream users' resistance to high-priced raw materials is no longer sporadic complaints but a collective vote of "not buying."
Signals Behind the Data
A sales ratio below 30% is not normal for polyester filament. In recent months, the ratio has typically fluctuated between 40% and 60%, and values below 30% often appear during stalemates after sharp price hikes. The data distribution is also intriguing: sample enterprises' ratios range from 0% to 340%, showing extreme divergence. A 340% ratio means one enterprise received orders far exceeding its output, likely a concentrated large order; while several enterprises with 0% saw no buyers at all. This ice-and-fire pattern indicates the market is not shrinking across the board but that demand is concentrating among a few enterprises with price advantages or strong customer relationships.
From the cost side, upstream raw materials PTA and MEG have recently maintained firm prices, squeezing the profit margins of polymerization and spinning. Factories want to raise prices to pass on costs, but downstream weaving enterprises are not buying it—terminal apparel and home textile orders show no significant improvement, greige fabric inventories are high, and weavers' cash flows are tight, so they are reluctant to stock up on expensive raw materials. This creates a typical pattern of blocked cost transmission: upstream rises, downstream refuses, and middle inventories pile up. For polyester filament factories, cutting prices to promote sales would further squeeze profits, while holding prices risks inventory depreciation—a dilemma.
Industrial Impact and Transmission Paths
The direct consequence of a low sales ratio is rising inventory days. Based on the current ratio, sample enterprises' inventory days may have approached the 30-day warning line, and some may be even higher. Inventory pressure will force factories to cut prices and destock at month-end or quarter-end, potentially loosening polyester filament prices. This is good news for downstream weavers, but for traders who have signed high-priced long-term contracts, it means potential losses.
More noteworthy is the chain reaction in regional industrial clusters. In the polyester filament hubs of Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, operating rates are highly correlated with sales ratios. When the sales ratio stays below 40%, weaving enterprises' purchasing willingness weakens, further depressing greige fabric prices, and affecting profit distribution across the entire Jiangsu-Zhejiang textile chain. In Keqiao and other fabric distribution centers, sluggish inquiries also confirm weak terminal demand. Once this negative feedback loop forms, it may last 2-4 weeks until inventories are digested to reasonable levels.
For exporters, RMB exchange rate fluctuations and seasonal declines in overseas orders combine to put pressure on export quotes for polyester filament and downstream fabrics. Overseas clients are extremely price-sensitive; a low domestic sales ratio means factories have room to concede on price, but it also signals weak demand, potentially lengthening foreign trade negotiation cycles.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term, avoiding chasing highs. If inventory allows, wait for month-end or mid-month factory destocking promotions before purchasing in batches. - Watch for a turning point signal: if the sales ratio rebounds above 50% for three consecutive days, it may indicate a price bottom, and you can appropriately increase purchase volumes. - Prioritize suppliers with a stable sales ratio above 80%—these enterprises have sufficient orders, firmer prices, but higher supply stability.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Add floating clauses in export quotes, such as pricing based on "weekly average price plus processing fee," to hedge against raw material price fluctuations. - Use the current low-sales-ratio window to negotiate long-term agreements with factories, locking in cost advantages for the next 2-3 months. - Closely track overseas demand recovery; if European and American restocking begins, secure supply sources in advance to avoid price increases after the sales ratio rebounds.
Every fluctuation in the chemical fiber market's sales ratio is a signal for profit redistribution across the industry chain. The current 30.9% figure is both a warning and an opportunity—understanding the game logic behind the data is key to grasping the initiative amid price fluctuations.