The thermometer of the polyester filament market dropped sharply on August 1. The average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises fell from 37.4% the previous trading day to 33.6%, a single-day decline of 3.8 percentage points. Behind this figure is the rapid decay of purchasing momentum after weekend restocking, and a signal that the game between upstream and downstream in the polyester chain is entering a new phase.
Sales Data: A Divergence Among Samples
The divergence is stark. On that day, the sales-to-production ratio ranged from 0% to 60%, with two enterprises achieving 60%, one at 40%, but many hovering between 20% and 30%, and some even recording zero. This divergence means that some enterprises can maintain shipments due to product mix or customer loyalty, while others are stuck with rising inventories. Overall trading sentiment was weak, with no sustained buying interest.
Why the Sudden Drop? – Restocking Overhang and Weakening Expectations
The weekend's concentrated restocking was essentially a bottom-fishing move by downstream weavers to secure low-priced raw materials. However, such impulse buying cannot last. Once restocking demand is released ahead of time, coupled with no obvious improvement in end-user orders, weavers naturally become less willing to enter the market. More crucially, market expectations for future prices are weakening. The weak oscillation of upstream PTA and ethylene glycol has undermined cost support for polyester filament, prompting traders and weavers to stay on the sidelines.
Industry Impact: Inventory Pressure Transmits Upstream
The most direct consequence of the declining sales ratio is rising inventories at polyester filament plants. If this trend continues, polyester plants may be forced to cut prices to stimulate sales, thereby squeezing processing margins. In fact, from the perspective of chain transmission, the ample supply of PX and PTA has already loosened the cost side, leaving little room for filament prices to rise. For downstream buyers, weak raw material prices should be beneficial for cost control, but if terminal demand remains sluggish, buyers may fall into a cautious 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality.