On August 4, the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises fell to 30.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. What does this number mean? Simply put, for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, fewer than 31 tons were sold, with the rest converted into inventory. In the chemical fiber industry, a ratio below 50% is already a warning zone, while 30.9% clearly indicates that the polyester filament market is shifting from active destocking to passive inventory build-up, with supply-demand contradictions intensifying.
Signals Behind the Data
The sharp drop in the sales-to-output ratio is not an isolated event. According to public data from sample enterprises, the ratio distribution on that day was highly polarized: the lowest was 0%, and the highest reached 340%. The extreme value of 340% suggests that a few companies may have achieved excess destocking through low-price promotions or large customer orders, while companies with 0% were completely ignored by the market. This ice-and-fire pattern indicates that the market is not shrinking across the board but is showing obvious structural divergence—companies with cost advantages or customer resources can still maintain shipments, while small and medium factories lacking bargaining power face the risk of sluggish sales.
Downstream users' "resistance to high prices" is the direct driver of the decline in the sales-to-output ratio. Recently, polyester filament prices have remained high due to upstream support, but terminal orders for clothing and home textiles have not rebounded correspondingly. Buyers generally believe that current prices exceed what actual demand can support, so they choose to postpone restocking and maintain low raw material inventories. This "the higher the price, the less they buy" mentality has made market inquiries sluggish and overall sales flat. In short, the 30.9% ratio is not just a data decline but a sign that price negotiations between upstream and downstream have entered a stalemate.
Transmission and Inventory Risk
The decline in polyester filament sales directly affects the inventory levels of polyester plants. When the sales-to-output ratio stays below 50%, finished goods inventory will accumulate passively, tying up capital and storage resources. If this state persists, plants may be forced to cut prices to stimulate sales, further compressing profit margins. Meanwhile, if raw material costs (such as PTA and MEG) remain high, a "high cost, low sales" scissors effect will squeeze the processing profits of polyester filament enterprises.
From the downstream transmission perspective, weaving enterprises (such as those in Shengze and Changxing industrial clusters) have clearly slowed their purchasing pace. Fabric mills and traders prefer to buy on demand and move quickly rather than stockpile in bulk. This cautious attitude stems from uncertainty about future demand—terminal orders have not shown obvious growth, and overseas markets lack strong recovery signals. Therefore, the weak sales of polyester filament are not a single-link problem but a concentrated reflection of insufficient demand momentum across the entire industrial chain.
For foreign trade companies, this data also has forward-looking significance. Export orders typically lock in raw material costs 2-3 months in advance. With current polyester filament prices high and sales declining, fabric prices may face downward adjustment pressure in the next 1-2 months. If export orders use floating quotes, profit margins may be eroded by raw material price drops; if fixed quotes are used, more careful assessment of raw material volatility is needed when accepting orders.
Procurement Strategy and Risk Response
Facing a sales-to-output ratio below 30%, market participants should not be blindly pessimistic but must adjust their operational thinking. For chemical fiber plants, the priority is to control operating rates and avoid full-load production when sales are sluggish, which would further accumulate inventory. At the same time, differentiating products (such as functional polyester filament or recycled polyester) can help avoid homogeneous competition and achieve higher premiums.
For downstream buyers, the current stalemate actually contains negotiation opportunities. As some plants face rising inventory pressure, there may be short-term price concessions, but one must be wary of fluctuations caused by raw material price volatility. It is recommended that buyers purchase in batches to avoid locking in high prices with one large order, while strengthening communication with upstream suppliers to seek more flexible settlement terms.