On August 28, the average production-sales ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises recorded 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure seems to signal a recovery, yet it failed to lift market sentiment—downstream resistance to high raw material prices remains strong, inquiries are sluggish, and transactions are in a stalemate. The narrow improvement in the production-sales ratio looks more like a technical rebound than a substantial demand recovery.
Signals Behind the Data
From the sample enterprise distribution, the production-sales ratio showed extreme divergence: most enterprises hovered between 10% and 40%, with the lowest at 0% and the highest at 500%. This wide gap suggests that a few enterprises may have achieved pulse shipments through price concessions or special orders, while most are still accumulating inventory. For buyers, this means the market has not formed a broad foundation for price increases; local low-priced sources may appear briefly, but overall bargaining space is limited.
A production-sales ratio persistently below 50% is a warning line for the chemical fiber industry. The closing data on August 27 was 29.4%, and although it rose to 34.7% on August 28, it remained below 40% for two consecutive days, indicating weak purchasing willingness among downstream weaving enterprises, which are maintaining just-in-time replenishment. Combined with recent fluctuations in polyester raw material prices, it can be judged that the game between cost and demand is intensifying, and polyester filament prices are unlikely to see a one-sided trend in the short term.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission and Regional Response
Polyester filament is a core intermediate in the weaving industry chain, and its production-sales ratio directly reflects marginal changes in loom utilization rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. Order conditions in major weaving clusters such as Shengze and Changxing usually lead the production-sales data by about two weeks. The current low ratio implies that gray fabric inventories in these clusters are accumulating, and weaving enterprises are more inclined to consume existing raw material stocks rather than actively replenish.
From the cost side, PTA and MEG prices have been fluctuating recently, compressing polyester plant processing margins and strengthening their willingness to support prices. However, downstream resistance forms a reverse pressure, limiting upward price movement. If this stalemate persists, it may force some polyester plants to cut production for maintenance, subsequently affecting future supply. Foreign trade enterprises should be alert that if production cuts expand, a temporary supply tightness may emerge by the end of Q3, potentially leading to a price catch-up.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Use the current stalemate period to build positions in batches, avoiding concentrated procurement during price volatility to lower average costs. - Closely monitor changes in polyester plant operating rates; if production cuts materialize, lock in distant-month supply in advance. - Negotiate more flexible settlement terms with suppliers, such as deferred payment or weekly price adjustments, to hedge price risks.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Incorporate raw material price linkage clauses in quotes, including polyester filament fluctuations in cost calculations to avoid margin squeeze. - Pay attention to RMB exchange rate and freight changes; current weak domestic demand may prompt some factories to shift to exports, intensifying competition, so differentiate products in advance. - Use industry data platforms (such as Huaxianbang) production-sales ratio indicators to predict price trends and optimize order intake rhythm.
Overall, the production-sales ratio recovery on August 28 is not yet sufficient to reverse the weak demand pattern. The market is in a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, and prices are likely to maintain range-bound fluctuations in the short term. Enterprises should remain cautious, adopt flexible strategies to cope with uncertainty, and wait for clear demand signals.