The thermometer of the polyester filament market is pointing low again. On August 28, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled enterprises was only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet this figure remains far below the healthy threshold (usually above 80%). More notably, downstream resistance to high prices has not subsided, inquiries remain cold, and the market is stuck in a typical "price without volume" stalemate.
Signals Behind the Data
The sales-to-production ratio is a core indicator for observing supply-demand balance in the polyester chain. A ratio of 34.7% means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced, fewer than 35 tons are actually sold, with the rest accumulating as inventory. Individual data from sampled enterprises show extreme divergence, ranging from 0% to 500%. A 0% ratio is not an outlier, while a 500% spike may result from a single large transaction or distress sale, reflecting fragmented expectations and intense buyer-seller negotiation.
This low-level volatility has persisted for several days. Reviewing data from August 24-27, the ratio hovered around 30%, indicating sustained weak purchasing willingness. The combination of high inventory and slow turnover is reshaping the bargaining dynamics across the chain.
How Inventory Pressure Transmits
A low sales-to-production ratio directly impacts the cash flow and inventory management of polyester plants. When the ratio stays below 50% for consecutive days, plants typically face two options: cut prices to free up capital, or reduce output to control inventory. However, upstream raw materials (like PTA and MEG) remain relatively firm, limiting the room for price cuts, which explains the contradictory situation of "high-price resistance" and "low-price reluctance."
Pressure is transmitting downstream. Weaving enterprises, facing high raw material costs and uncertain end-orders, generally adopt a "buy-as-needed" strategy, shortening their stocking cycles. This, in turn, exacerbates the low sales-to-production ratio for polyester plants. The foreign trade segment is equally strained, with weak overseas demand recovery and volatile freight costs leading to short-term and small-scale orders, which fail to provide stable support for raw material consumption.
Market Outlook and Strategies
In the short term, the polyester filament market is likely to remain stagnant. Without major changes in costs, plants will maintain firm pricing, but demand lacks growth drivers, and the sales-to-production ratio may continue to fluctuate in the 30%-40% range. For buyers, this presents both risk and opportunity: if they judge that raw material prices are near the bottom, they can moderately lock in orders; if they expect sustained weak demand, maintaining low inventory is advisable.
For polyester plants, rather than passively waiting for demand recovery, it is wiser to proactively adjust product mixes, increasing the development of differentiated products (such as functional and recycled fibers) to avoid homogeneous competition. Additionally, using futures tools for hedging to lock in processing margins is an important measure to cope with sales-to-production volatility.