The August 28 sales data acts as a mirror reflecting the current awkward situation in the polyester filament yarn market: the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises stood at 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, but downstream high-price resistance remained strong, inquiries were sluggish, and the market fell into a stalemate. What does this number mean? It is far below the healthy level of over 80%, indicating that demand has not truly recovered, and the rebound is more of a low-level repair.
Divergence Behind the Data
Looking at the sample enterprises, the distribution of sales ratios is highly uneven: most enterprises fall in the 0%-40% range, with two at 0% and 10% each, five at 20% and 30% each, and two at 40%; but one enterprise has a ratio as high as 500%, forming a sharp contrast. This extreme divergence reveals a fact: the market is not experiencing an overall recovery, but rather individual enterprises have achieved inventory reduction through channel advantages or pricing strategies, while the vast majority are still struggling under inventory pressure.
The low sales ratio directly reflects the weak purchasing willingness of downstream weaving enterprises. High-price resistance is not an emotional issue but a result of profit calculation—with polyester filament yarn prices at relatively high levels and terminal textile demand sluggish, weaving enterprises see their processing profits squeezed, naturally unwilling to bear excessive costs on raw materials. This upstream-downstream game essentially reflects poor cost transmission.
Root of Stalemate and Outlook
The root of the stalemate lies in the mismatch between cost and demand. Upstream PTA and MEG are supported by crude oil fluctuations, giving polyester filament yarn factories a strong willingness to maintain prices; but downstream orders are insufficient, inventories accumulate, and buyers generally adopt a just-in-time purchasing strategy, reluctant to build large stocks. This supply-demand tug-of-war makes prices difficult to rise or fall, and short-term fluctuations are likely to remain narrow.
For the industry, this stalemate is not necessarily bad. It forces upstream factories to optimize product structures, reduce blind production of conventional varieties, and shift toward differentiated products; it also prompts traders to strengthen risk management and avoid speculative hoarding. Historical experience shows that the longer the sales ratio stays below 50%, the greater the pressure for subsequent price adjustments. Once the cost side loosens, the downward channel may open.
For buyers, the current price stalemate is a window to adjust procurement strategies. There is no need to chase highs or panic restocking; instead, lock in forward supply in batches to reduce average cost risk. For factories, low sales ratios mean production scheduling needs to be more aligned with actual orders to reduce inventory capital occupation. For foreign trade firms, exchange rate fluctuations and overseas demand changes are important variables that require close monitoring of order pacing.