On August 28, the polyester filament market delivered a lackluster performance: the average production-sales ratio of sampled enterprises was only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet still at a low level. Behind the numbers lies persistent downstream resistance to high prices, sluggish inquiries, and a stagnant market. When the production-sales ratio lingers below 40%, the transmission logic of the chemical fiber industry chain is undergoing subtle changes.
Market Signals from Production-Sales Data
The production-sales ratio is a core indicator measuring the match between daily sales and output. A ratio of 34.7% means only about one-third of daily output was absorbed by the market, with the rest becoming inventory. Company-level data shows extreme divergence: the lowest was 0%, the highest 500%, but most samples fell between 10% and 40%. This polarization suggests that some enterprises achieved excess sales through differentiated products or customer loyalty, while mainstream manufacturers generally faced destocking pressure.
Notably, the ratio rose 5.3 percentage points from the previous day, but market sentiment did not improve. The reason is that this rebound is more of a base effect—the previous trading day's ratio was extremely low (around 29.4%)—rather than a substantive recovery in demand. Downstream weaving enterprises are purchasing on a need-to basis, with extremely low stocking willingness, leading to sparse transactions.
High-Price Resistance and Cost Game
Downstream resistance is not unfounded. Recently, upstream raw material prices have fluctuated, keeping ex-factory prices of polyester filament high, while terminal orders for clothing and home textiles have not shown explosive growth, squeezing weavers' profit margins. When raw material costs cannot be smoothly transmitted to the end market, downstream enterprises can only respond by reducing purchase frequency and inventory. This 'neither high nor low' deadlock is essentially a game of price expectations among chain participants: upstream wants to protect profits, downstream wants to lower costs, and intermediaries wait for direction.
For buyers, the current market is not without opportunities. A low production-sales ratio often implies more bargaining room, as some enterprises may accept price concessions to relieve inventory pressure. However, the stalemate may persist for weeks; if upstream prices loosen, polyester filament prices may see a catch-up decline. Therefore, procurement strategies need to be flexible and patient, avoiding overstocking during price stagnation.
When Will the Stalemate Break?
Three key variables could break the current deadlock: first, the price trend of upstream raw materials such as PTA and MEG—if costs decline, polyester filament prices are likely to follow, stimulating downstream restocking; second, the pace of terminal demand recovery—as the traditional peak season of September-October approaches, if orders improve significantly, the production-sales ratio will naturally rise; third, industry operating rate adjustments—if more enterprises proactively cut production to support prices, supply-demand dynamics may rebalance.
Historically, a production-sales ratio consistently below 40% often signals the industry entering an active destocking phase, followed by a turning point driven by price adjustments or demand recovery. The current timing is close to the 'golden September and silver October' season, so downstream restocking demand may gradually release, but only if prices reach their psychological expectations. Market performance over the next two weeks will be crucial.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Monitor consecutive production-sales data; if it remains below 40%, consider delaying large purchases and waiting for price corrections. - Negotiate more flexible delivery cycles and pricing mechanisms with suppliers to mitigate potential price drop risks. - Use the sluggish market period to establish small-scale trial cooperation to test supplier quality and stability.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Export order quotations should reserve room for exchange rate and raw material fluctuations to avoid profit erosion due to domestic price stagnation. - Closely track international oil prices and upstream raw material dynamics, and adjust procurement rhythm in a timely manner. - When communicating with overseas clients, emphasize that current prices are at a cyclical high and suggest placing orders in batches to spread risks.
Every stalemate in the chemical fiber market is a prelude to repricing. For every party in the industry chain, understanding the emotions and games behind the production-sales ratio is more valuable than chasing daily price fluctuations.