When the weekly average price of reserve cotton settled at 17,463 yuan/ton, yet the premium narrowed from 1,434 yuan/ton in early July to 1,184 yuan/ton, the contrast reveals not weak demand but rational restraint amid high prices. Six consecutive weeks of 100% clearance indicate the market's rigid reliance on policy-supplied cotton remains strong, but the cautious bidding is redefining procurement strategies.
Sales Structure: Regional Concentration and Variety Divergence
During the week of August 24-28, 40,100 tons of reserve cotton were offered, all sold, representing a 100% clearance rate. Xinjiang cotton averaged 17,413 yuan/ton, equivalent to 18,039 yuan/ton on a 3128 basis, with a premium of 1,051 yuan/ton. Imported cotton averaged 17,482 yuan/ton, equivalent to 18,220 yuan/ton on a 3128 basis, with a premium of 1,232 yuan/ton. Imported cotton commanded a 69 yuan/ton price premium over Xinjiang cotton, but the premium amount was 181 yuan/ton higher, indicating intense competition for higher-grade foreign cotton.
By registered location of purchasing enterprises, Shandong, Hubei, and Jiangsu provinces together bought 21,000 tons, accounting for 52.34% of the weekly total. This concentration is not coincidental: Shandong, as a major cotton textile province, has large capacity and rigid restocking demand; Hubei and Jiangsu, with a higher share of high-count yarn and differentiated products, rely more on imported cotton. This regional divergence implies that future cotton price fluctuations will have asymmetric impacts on different industrial clusters.
Cumulative Sales and Price Trends: The Anchor Effect of Policy Reserves
From July 20 to August 28, cumulative listed reserve cotton reached 240,683.76 tons, with cumulative sales of 240,683.76 tons, achieving a 100% clearance rate. The cumulative average price was 17,264 yuan/ton, equivalent to 17,911 yuan/ton on a 3128 basis, with an average premium of 1,434 yuan/ton. Xinjiang cotton averaged 16,978 yuan/ton, while imported cotton averaged 17,393 yuan/ton, a cumulative premium of 415 yuan/ton, but the premium amount difference was significant (1,562 vs. 1,147 yuan/ton).
These figures reveal two key signals: First, the smooth 100% clearance of reserve cotton has effectively supplemented market supply and curbed excessive price increases. Second, the persistent high premium for imported cotton underscores a structural shortage of high-grade domestic cotton, prompting mills to pay more for quality. For foreign trade enterprises, this means that when quoting orders, the hidden cost volatility of cotton raw materials must be factored in to avoid margin erosion from raw material price spikes.
Transmission to the Supply Chain: From Procurement Strategies to Product Pricing
The sustained strong sales of reserve cotton have directly raised raw material inventory costs for textile mills. At a weekly average of 17,463 yuan/ton, this is approximately 2.7% higher than the week of July 20, while cotton yarn prices have lagged, squeezing spinning margins. This pattern of rising cotton but stagnant yarn forces mills to manage inventory cycles more carefully: avoiding both excessive stockpiling and the risk of supply disruptions that could lead to contract breaches.
For buyers, the narrowing premium (from 1,434 to 1,184 yuan/ton) suggests a shift from panic buying to rational bidding. Yet the 100% clearance rate indicates that downstream will accept all offers as long as prices remain within an acceptable range. This paradox is precisely the balance point between policy regulation and market forces. If new cotton harvest is delayed or weather disruptions occur, the pace of reserve releases may become a key valve for market adjustment.