The polyester filament yarn market on August 28 can hardly be described merely as 'stagnant'—the average sales-to-output ratio of sample enterprises was only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet still within the year's low range. More notably, despite the rebound, downstream resistance to high prices has not subsided, inquiries remain sluggish, and deals are scarce, pushing price negotiations into a 'tug-of-war' phase.
The Real Demand Behind the Numbers
What does a 34.7% sales-to-output ratio mean? Simply put, for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, fewer than 35 tons find buyers on the same day. Public data from sample enterprises show ratios ranging from 0% to 500%, but the vast majority are concentrated in the 20%-30% band, with some even recording zero sales. This 'ice and fire' distribution suggests the market is not uniformly weak but structurally divided—some enterprises still ship well due to differentiated products or long-term orders, while mainstream commodity grades are clearly sluggish.
Downstream resistance to high prices is not unfounded. Since mid-August, polyester filament yarn prices have remained elevated, but terminal weaving orders have not expanded in tandem. For weaving mills whose profits depend on processing fees, raw materials account for over 70% of costs; every 100 yuan/ton increase in raw material prices compresses their profit margins by nearly one percentage point. Until end-demand genuinely recovers, weavers prefer to cut operating rates rather than pay high prices—a rational choice directly reflected in the sales data.
The Logic of Cost-Price Game
The cost side of polyester filament yarn is mainly influenced by PTA and MEG prices. Recent crude oil volatility has altered profit distribution along the PX-PTA chain, theoretically providing cost support. However, this support has not translated into effective price transmission—upstream raw material prices rise, but downstream refuses to accept higher finished product prices, leaving polyester plants to absorb the pressure.
This 'squeezed from both ends' pattern is vividly illustrated in the August 28 data. Polyester plants attempt to stabilize prices by cutting production, but the sluggish sales ratio indicates that current cuts are insufficient to reverse the supply-demand balance. More critically, the industry's overall operating rate remains high, and the pressure from new capacity looms; if production cuts fall short of expectations, downside price risks will reaccumulate.
Transmission Effects on Buyers and Foreign Trade Companies
For buyers, the current stalemate presents both risks and opportunities. The risk is that if upstream raw material prices continue to rise, polyester filament yarn prices may be forced to follow, so locking in prices early could hedge against cost increases. The opportunity is that if demand remains weak, polyester plants may offer concessions to reduce inventory, and waiting could yield better prices. However, a sales ratio persistently below 40% often signals an approaching inflection point, and blind waiting may miss the optimal purchasing window.
For foreign trade companies, RMB exchange rate fluctuations and overseas demand uncertainty compound the fragility of export order profits. Although August 28 data only reflects the domestic market, a decline in domestic sales ratios often leads export price adjustments. When signing forward contracts, foreign trade firms should fully consider raw material price volatility and, if necessary, use hedging instruments to lock costs.