On August 28, the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises settled at 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. At first glance, this seems like a sign of market recovery, but a closer look at the underlying structure reveals a different story: nearly 30% of sample enterprises reported ratios as low as 10%-20%, with some even recording zero transactions. Downstream resistance to high prices has not dissipated with this one-day rebound, inquiries remain sluggish, and the market is stuck in a stalemate.
What the Sales Data Really Shows
The sales-to-output ratio is a sensitive indicator of supply-demand balance in the chemical fiber market. The 34.7% average, despite its rise from the previous day, still falls far short of a healthy level (typically considered above 60%). The sample distribution shows a clear polarization: some enterprises reached 40% or higher, while others lingered at 10%-20%, and a few had no transactions at all. This divergence suggests that the so-called rebound is not a broad demand recovery but rather localized transactions achieved by a few enterprises through price cuts or concessions.
Notably, the fluctuation range of the ratio was wide, from 0% to 40%, reflecting market sentiment instability. As a core product in the polyester industry chain, polyester filament's sales performance directly reflects downstream weaving enterprises' operating rates and raw material procurement pace. Current data indicates that weaving mills have limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials, weak stockpiling willingness, and a preference for just-in-time procurement.
Cost and Demand Game
Polyester filament prices are highly correlated with upstream costs of PTA and MEG. Recent volatility in raw material prices has intensified, but filament producers face a dilemma: cost pressures demand downward transmission, while downstream resistance makes price hikes difficult to implement. This cost-demand game has trapped the market in an awkward position of neither rising nor falling.
From an industrial transmission perspective, polyester filament sits in the middle of the polyester chain, and its price movements directly affect the production costs of downstream greige fabrics and finished textiles. For weaving enterprises, raw material costs typically account for over 70% of total costs, making them extremely sensitive to price changes. The current low sales-to-output ratio implies that downstream enterprises are trying to force upstream price cuts by reducing purchases—a classic market bargaining behavior.
Chain Reactions in Industrial Clusters
Major polyester filament production areas include Tongxiang and Shaoxing in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu. Weaving enterprises in these clusters are directly affected by raw material price fluctuations. According to public industry data, the operating rate of water-jet looms in the Shengze area remains around 70%, but new orders are limited, and enterprises are mostly in a destocking phase. If polyester filament prices remain high, downstream purchasing enthusiasm could be further suppressed, leading to lower operating rates and affecting the entire chain's rhythm.
For foreign trade companies, cost uncertainty from raw material price fluctuations is becoming a major concern when accepting orders. Overseas clients typically place orders at fixed prices; if domestic raw material prices fluctuate sharply in the short term, foreign trade enterprises may face profit erosion. Consequently, some companies have begun adjusting their quotation strategies by incorporating raw material price linkage clauses into contracts to hedge risks.