On August 28, the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises stood at only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet downstream resistance to high prices remained strong, and market inquiries stayed sluggish. This figure reflects the ongoing tug-of-war along the chemical fiber supply chain: although the ratio rebounded, it is far from a healthy level, and the stalemate persists.
Signals Behind the Data
Public data from sampled enterprises shows extreme divergence: some firms reported ratios as high as 500%, while several posted zero sales. This polarization indicates that the market is not broadly recovering; only a few companies managed to destock through price concessions or client relationships, while most still face shipment pressure. An average ratio of 34.7% means over 60% of capacity did not translate into actual sales, and inventory pressure is quietly building.
More notably, downstream users' resistance to high-priced raw materials continues to intensify. Polyester filament prices remain elevated, while terminal textile orders have not grown correspondingly, suppressing weaving mills' purchasing willingness. Inquiries are cold, transactions are scarce, and the market is stuck in a standoff where sellers want to raise prices but buyers refuse to accept. The essence of this situation is a struggle between cost and demand: upstream raw material prices are firm, but downstream affordability is limited, causing a blockage in price transmission.
Why the Ratio Is Hard to Boost
The low ratio is not caused by a single factor. On the cost side, polyester raw material prices have stayed high recently, supporting filament prices but also squeezing downstream profit margins. Facing high-priced raw materials, weaving mills prefer to consume existing inventories or delay purchases rather than actively restock. On the demand side, the recovery of terminal consumer markets such as apparel and home textiles is insufficient, with orders mostly small and urgent, failing to generate sustained purchasing momentum.
Moreover, the long-term contradiction of industry overcapacity persists. In recent years, new polyester filament capacity has been released gradually, while downstream demand growth has slowed, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand and intensifying market competition. Under an oversupply pattern, even if individual enterprises boost their ratios through promotions, it is hard to reverse the industry-wide downturn. This structural pressure makes low ratios the norm rather than a short-term fluctuation.
Impact on the Supply Chain
For polyester filament producers, a low ratio means slower inventory turnover and increased capital occupation. Some companies may be forced to offer discounts, but price wars would only further compress industry profits. For downstream weaving mills, the dual squeeze of high raw material prices and insufficient orders makes procurement strategies more cautious, favoring "buy-as-needed" instead of bulk stocking. This mindset, in turn, exacerbates upstream sales difficulties, forming a negative loop.
For foreign trade enterprises, current exchange rate fluctuations and shipping cost changes add uncertainty to orders. If polyester filament and downstream textile exports are denominated in US dollars, exchange rate movements directly affect profits; unstable international logistics costs also make delivery cycles and costs difficult to control precisely. Against the backdrop of a low ratio, foreign trade firms need to pay more attention to inventory management and order pacing to avoid losses from raw material price swings or logistics delays.
When Will the Deadlock Break
In the short term, the polyester filament market is likely to maintain narrow fluctuations. Cost support and weak demand offset each other, making significant price increases or decreases unlikely. A real turning point may come when terminal demand substantially recovers—if autumn/winter apparel orders or home textile demand picks up, it will drive weaving mills to restock, thereby boosting the filament sales-to-output ratio. Otherwise, the stalemate may persist until the traditional peak season begins.
Notably, increasing industry concentration is changing the game. Large chemical fiber enterprises, leveraging scale advantages, have more initiative in pricing and inventory management; small and medium manufacturers face greater survival pressure. In the future, divergence in ratios may intensify, and industry consolidation could accelerate. For market participants, rather than guessing price inflection points, it is wiser to focus on inventory and cash flow management to cope with potential volatility.