On August 28, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises was only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, but still at a low level. Behind this figure lies strong downstream resistance to high raw material prices, sluggish market inquiries, and a stalemate in trading. The chemical fiber industry chain is in a delicate game period, and the tug-of-war between prices and demand is unlikely to be resolved in the short term.
Signals Behind the Production-Sales Data
What does a sales-to-production ratio of 34.7% mean? Simply put, nearly two-thirds of the capacity of sampled enterprises failed to translate into actual sales. Looking at the specific data, the ratios on that day ranged from 0% to 500%, showing extreme divergence. A 0% ratio indicates almost no transactions for some enterprises, while 500% might be due to concentrated delivery of previous orders or special customer procurement. This extreme divergence reflects a lack of unified confidence in the market, with both buyers and sellers in a wait-and-see mode.
More notably, although the ratio rose from the previous trading day, the absolute level remains low. Industry public data shows that the normal sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament is typically between 70% and 80%, so 34.7% is only about half of the normal level. This means inventory pressure is building up, and if demand does not effectively recover, enterprises may face a passive situation of price cuts to reduce inventory.
Downstream Resistance and Price Stalemate
The strong resistance of downstream users to high prices is the core reason for the current market deadlock. Raw material prices remain high, while the recovery of terminal consumption in apparel, home textiles, and other sectors is limited, severely squeezing the profit margins of downstream weaving enterprises. Under such circumstances, buyers generally adopt a "procure on demand, buy as you use" strategy to avoid large inventory holding that ties up capital.
This mentality is directly reflected in inquiry data - market inquiries are sluggish and trading activity is low. Notably, low values such as 0% and 10% in the production-sales data are not isolated but widespread. This indicates that downstream buyers not only resist high prices but also have extremely low willingness to purchase at current price levels. For polyester filament producers, this means limited room for price increases, while price cuts may further exacerbate losses, leaving them in a dilemma.
From the perspective of industrial chain transmission, the price trends of upstream raw materials such as PTA and MEG will directly affect the cost support for polyester filament. If upstream raw material prices correct, polyester filament may follow downward, thereby stimulating downstream restocking demand; conversely, if raw material prices remain firm, polyester filament may continue to stagnate, waiting for demand-side improvement.
Market Expectations and Operational Strategies
The current chemical fiber market is in a typical ambiguous transition from a "buyer's market" to a "seller's market." Historically, after sales-to-production ratios remain below 50% for consecutive days, price adjustments often occur. Although the ratio rebounded by 5.3 percentage points this time, its sustainability remains to be seen. Industry analysts believe that polyester filament prices are likely to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with downside risks greater than upside potential.
For downstream buyers, it is not advisable to blindly chase price increases or be overly bearish at this stage. It is recommended to closely monitor upstream raw material price changes and weaving enterprise operating rate data. If operating rates continue to decline, weakening demand will drag prices down; if operating rates recover, restocking demand may drive an improvement in the sales-to-production ratio.