On August 28, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure remains low, indicating that over 60% of output has not been converted into actual sales. Downstream users' resistance to high prices remains strong, inquiries are sluggish, and the market is in a stalemate. The slight recovery in the ratio is more of a pulse restocking after price easing than a substantive demand rebound.
Signals Behind the Data
A sales-to-production ratio below 40% for a long period directly points to supply-demand imbalance. Currently, the operating rate of polyester filament yarn remains high, while terminal orders for clothing and home textiles have not increased correspondingly. On the raw material side, PTA and ethylene glycol prices are firm, providing clear cost support, but downstream weaving enterprises have squeezed profit margins, and their willingness to purchase is suppressed by high prices. The industry chain exhibits a typical transmission blockage: upstream price increases, midstream inventory accumulation, and downstream wait-and-see attitudes.
Looking at the sample enterprise data, the distribution of the ratio is extremely uneven, with the highest at 500% and the lowest at 0%. This extreme divergence indicates that the market is not entirely depressed but structurally differentiated: some differentiated products are still favored, while conventional specifications are severely unsold. For buyers, this means more bargaining space for homogeneous products, while differentiated products require early order confirmation.
Double Squeeze of Costs and Inventory
On the cost side, fluctuations in international oil prices and tight PX supply have pushed up raw material prices, but polyester filament yarn price increases are weak, putting pressure on factory cash flow. On the inventory side, industry inventory days have risen to over 30 days, and some enterprises even exceed 45 days, approaching the warning line. High inventory forces factories to cut prices, but the downstream "buy on rising, not falling" mentality exacerbates wait-and-see behavior.
This deadlock is particularly severe for small and medium-sized enterprises. Tight cash flow coupled with inventory backlog has led some factories to reduce production or schedule maintenance, attempting to stabilize prices through supply contraction. However, the scale of production cuts is limited and cannot reverse the overall oversupply pattern. The industry is undergoing a passive destocking process, with the risk of price wars looming.
A Window of Gameplay in Season Transition
The current period is a traditional transition from off-season to peak season, with September usually being the time for autumn and winter fabric stocking. However, this year, terminal orders show obvious signs of delay, and brands lack confidence in the future, slowing down stocking pace. If demand continues to weaken, polyester filament yarn prices may decline further; conversely, if raw material prices continue to strengthen, factories may be forced to raise prices, further suppressing demand.
For downstream weaving enterprises, this is a critical window for strategic gameplay. Raw material procurement costs account for over 60% of production costs, making timely inventory replenishment crucial. It is recommended to closely monitor raw material trends and polyester factory production cut dynamics. If prices fall to psychological levels, moderate increases in conventional specification inventories can be considered; for differentiated products, establishing long-term cooperation with suppliers is essential to ensure stable supply.