The stalemate in the polyester filament market was fully exposed by the latest sales-to-production data on August 28. The average ratio among sample enterprises was only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, but this level remains far below the threshold for healthy industry operation. More notably, five of the 26 sample enterprises reported zero sales, while only a few reached 40% or an outlier of 500%. The signals behind these numbers are far more complex than the surface figures suggest.
Sales Data Divergence: Structural Weakness Beneath the Average
The 34.7% average actually masks significant divergence among enterprises. Most sample enterprises concentrated in the 20%-30% range, while the 500% extreme value clearly represents sporadic orders from individual companies and lacks universal significance. This divergence indicates that current market demand is not broadly recovering but shows distinct structural characteristics—some enterprises manage to maintain shipments through customer loyalty or product differentiation, but the vast majority are struggling with insufficient orders.
From a supply chain perspective, a sales-to-production ratio persistently below 50% implies that polyester filament factories are experiencing passive inventory accumulation. As inventory pressure transmits to the production end, factories' operating rate decisions become more cautious. In fact, some polyester plants have already begun adjusting unit loads in the past week, reflecting both a passive response to demand and an active defense against cash flow pressure.
High-Price Resistance and Cost Transmission: A Stalemate Between Upstream and Downstream
Downstream users' resistance to high raw material prices is the direct cause of sluggish market inquiries. Polyester filament prices have been adjusted upward due to cost pressures, but terminal textile demand has not strengthened synchronously, leading to weak purchasing willingness among weaving enterprises. This price game between upstream and downstream is essentially a contest over profit distribution—upstream polyester plants attempt to pass on PTA and MEG cost pressures through price hikes, while downstream weaving mills, facing difficulties in raising their own product prices, refuse to accept expensive raw materials.
Notably, cost-side support remains intact. International oil prices have maintained a volatile but firm pattern recently, and spot prices of PTA and MEG remain at relatively high levels. This means the processing margins of polyester filament factories have been compressed to multi-year lows. If costs continue to rise while sales ratios fail to improve, factories face loss risks, potentially leading to further production cuts.
Market Expectations and Purchasing Rhythm: Short-Term Still Dominated by Just-in-Time Demand
From a purchasing rhythm perspective, downstream users are currently adopting a "buy-as-needed" strategy, significantly shortening their stockpiling cycles. This behavior reflects uncertainty about future price trends—fearing inventory depreciation if raw material prices fall, while also worrying about restocking costs rising if supply tightens. In the absence of clear directional signals, waiting becomes the most rational choice.
However, the stalemate cannot last indefinitely. With the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaching, terminal orders are expected to improve marginally, which could act as a catalyst to break the current equilibrium. But it should be noted that even if demand rebounds, its strength may be weaker than in previous years, given the broader slowdown in global textile consumption growth. Therefore, the recovery in sales ratios is more likely to follow a slow climb rather than a V-shaped reversal.
Industry Impact: Price Elasticity from the Inventory Cycle Perspective
The current low sales-to-production ratio in the polyester filament market suggests that the industry is undergoing an active inventory destocking phase. Historical experience shows that when the ratio stays below 40% for multiple consecutive days, factories often intensify promotional efforts within one to two weeks to alleviate inventory pressure. This implies that short-term prices may test lower levels, but the downside is limited by cost support.
For weaving enterprises, this may present a relatively favorable procurement window—if they can lock in low raw material prices during factory promotions, it will help improve their own profits. However, they should also be cautious that if costs continue to strengthen, the intensity of promotions may fall short of expectations. Therefore, procurement decisions need to comprehensively weigh cost trends and their own order situations.