On August 28, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises stood at 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet still within a low range for the year. More notably, downstream resistance to high raw material prices remained unabated despite the uptick, with market inquiries sluggish and overall transactions in a deadlock.
Behind the Numbers: Real Demand
A 34.7% ratio means sampled enterprises sold only about one-third of their output that day, with the rest adding to inventories. Although the figure improved sequentially, the absolute level remains weak. The breakdown shows extreme dispersion, from 0% to 500%, where the 500% outlier likely reflects a one-off bulk order, while the majority of enterprises fell in the 10%-30% band, indicating insufficient mainstream transaction momentum.
This divergence suggests that current demand is not broad-based but rather structural and point-specific. Downstream weaving mills are mostly digesting existing inventories or making urgent spot purchases, with little appetite for building stocks. High prices are the primary deterrent—raw material costs remain elevated, but price transmission to end products is poor, squeezing weaving margins and prompting buyers to stay on the sidelines.
Fading Cost Support vs. Peak Season Hopes
Recent polyester filament price gains were primarily cost-driven, especially from PTA and MEG rebounds. However, as cost momentum fades, the market is reverting to fundamentals. The widely anticipated "golden September and silver October" peak season has yet to be confirmed in order books. Some weavers report only modest sequential improvement in new orders, mostly short-run and small-lot, with long-term orders scarce.
This implies peak season expectations may be overly optimistic. If costs no longer provide support, polyester filament prices face limited upside, and with high inventories, enterprises may resort to discount promotions. Conversely, if downstream demand materializes in September, the current low ratio could set the stage for a price rebound. But based on present data, the market leans toward a cautious "not-so-peak" scenario.
Industrial Cluster Reactions and Transmission
In key consumption areas like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, weaving mill operating rates hover around 70%, but raw material procurement has visibly slowed. Some mills have compressed feedstock inventory to 7-10 days, just enough for minimal production. This "low inventory, frequent purchasing" mode reflects downstream uncertainty about future prices.
Meanwhile, foreign trade orders remain subdued due to exchange rate fluctuations and weak overseas demand, further dampening indirect polyester filament demand. Although some domestic autumn/winter fabric orders have emerged, they are insufficient to reverse the overall supply-demand balance. The standoff between upstream and downstream is unlikely to break in the short term.