On August 28, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises recorded 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet this figure remains at a historical low for the same period. More concerning, downstream resistance to high raw material prices has not eased, with sluggish inquiries and stagnant transactions. The slight rebound in the ratio appears more like a technical rebound after overselling than a real signal of demand recovery.
Data Reveals Market Truth
From the sample enterprise distribution, the day's sales-to-production ratios showed extreme divergence: the highest reached 500%, while the lowest was 0%, with most enterprises concentrated in the 10%-40% range. This fragmented distribution suggests that individual enterprises' sales spikes may stem from special orders or promotional strategies rather than industry-wide improvement. Excluding extreme values, the mainstream enterprises' actual ratio might be below 30%, far below the 60%-70% break-even threshold.
The persistently low ratio directly leads to inventory accumulation in polyester plants. Based on current sales pace, the inventory days of polyester filament may approach 30 days, with some enterprises facing storage pressure. High inventory not only occupies warehouse space but also raises capital costs—at 8,000 yuan per ton, a 10,000-ton inventory would incur over 600,000 yuan in monthly interest, a heavy burden for cash-strapped small and medium enterprises.
Caught Between Costs and Demand
The price standstill of polyester filament stems from dual pressures from the cost side and demand side. Upstream PTA and MEG prices have fluctuated narrowly recently, providing limited cost support and unable to drive filament prices higher. Meanwhile, downstream weaving enterprises face insufficient orders and are reluctant to purchase high-priced raw materials, with some even choosing to cut production or halt operations. This pattern of 'no cost increase, no demand strength' leaves filament prices in a dilemma.
From a regional industrial cluster perspective, in major polyester filament distribution hubs like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, traders have notably slowed shipment pace. The gray fabric transaction volume at Shengze Oriental Silk Market dropped about 15% month-on-month, with weaving enterprise operating rates at around 70%, far below the 85% level seen in previous years. Terminal clothing brands are cautious in ordering, leading to shrinking fabric purchases and further upstream transmission. Inventory pressure is being passed along the supply chain, forming a negative feedback loop.
Peak Season Expectations Under Test
With the traditional 'golden September and silver October' peak season approaching, the market had hoped for demand recovery. However, the current macro environment is complex and volatile, with overseas orders facing uncertainties from geopolitical tensions and exchange rate fluctuations. Domestic consumption recovery is moderate, with clothing retail sales growth slowing, making it difficult to support significant raw material price increases. Therefore, peak season expectations for polyester filament may be disappointed; even if demand seasonally picks up, the magnitude may be weaker than in previous years.
For chemical fiber enterprises, the current priority should be cash flow management rather than blindly holding prices. Historical experience shows that during weak demand periods, moderately reducing prices to destock and recover funds is often wiser than maintaining high prices. Some leading enterprises have begun adjusting sales strategies, such as promotions or bundled sales to stimulate downstream purchases, but the effects remain to be seen.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Take advantage of the current price standstill to build inventory in batches, avoiding cost spikes from concentrated peak-season procurement. - Monitor destocking activities of high-inventory enterprises to source lower-priced goods. - When signing long-term contracts, include price adjustment clauses to hedge against cost fluctuations.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Build exchange rate fluctuation buffers into quotes to protect profits from short-term RMB volatility. - Explore emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East to diversify order sources and reduce dependence on US and European markets. - Monitor overseas terminal demand changes, flexibly adjust product mix, and increase the proportion of high value-added differentiated products.
The market standoff in chemical fibers essentially reflects the pain of supply-demand rebalancing. In the short term, polyester filament prices may continue to fluctuate narrowly; in the medium term, the pace of capacity rationalization and demand recovery will determine the industry's turning point. Only by maintaining healthy cash flow can enterprises remain resilient amid cyclical fluctuations.