In the first week of September, the domestic acrylonitrile market received a clear supply contraction signal. Anqing Petrochemical plans to shut down two units with a combined capacity of 210,000 tons per year in batches. The 80,000-ton Unit 1 stopped on September 2, followed by the 130,000-ton Unit 2 on September 8, with an overall maintenance window of about two months. This is not an isolated event but part of a concentrated maintenance wave across domestic chemical plants in Q3, and its transmission effect on the fiber value chain deserves attention from both procurement and sales sides.
From a capacity share perspective, 210,000 tons per year accounts for about 4% of domestic acrylonitrile capacity. Though seemingly small, the concentrated shutdown within two months means a temporary loss of supply during the period. Given the relatively rigid downstream demand, especially in acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber precursor sectors, the price impact may be amplified. Historical data from similar maintenance events in recent years shows spot prices typically rise by 3% to 8%, and this round is unlikely to be an exception.
Supply Contraction and Cost Transmission
Acrylonitrile price fluctuations do not impact the textile industry uniformly. Acrylic fiber, as the largest downstream consumer, has raw material costs accounting for over 70% of production costs. Therefore, every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in acrylonitrile raises acrylic fiber theoretical costs by about 700 yuan/ton. For woolen and knitting enterprises that rely heavily on acrylic fiber, procurement costs face upward pressure, especially as autumn and winter fabric orders are in the stocking phase, making cost locking increasingly urgent.
Meanwhile, ABS resin and carbon fiber sectors are also affected. ABS resin is widely used in automotive and appliance housings; if prices rise due to raw material costs, it will indirectly push up costs for industrial textiles and technical textiles. Carbon fiber precursor production requires high-purity acrylonitrile, and supply tightness may prompt some carbon fiber companies to adjust production schedules, affecting the supply rhythm of high-end textile composites.
From a regional industrial belt perspective, East China, as a cluster of downstream acrylonitrile processors, will feel the impact first. Acrylic yarn and fabric enterprises in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces will face the most direct price fluctuations. Although dyeing and finishing links in Shaoxing and Changshu do not directly consume acrylonitrile, upstream cost pressure will transmit along the chain, eventually reflecting in grey fabric and finished fabric quotations.
Supply-Demand Game and Price Expectations
The actual impact of this maintenance largely depends on demand-side cooperation. Current end-demand for acrylic fiber is generally stable. Although export orders have not shown explosive growth, domestic sales maintain resilience driven by Double Eleven and winter clothing stocking. If demand does not decline significantly, supply reduction will effectively support firm acrylonitrile spot prices, possibly prompting traders to replenish inventory early, further amplifying short-term supply-demand imbalance.
It is worth noting that Anqing's maintenance is not isolated. Entering Q3, multiple acrylonitrile producers have announced maintenance plans, and industry operating rates may drop from over 80% to around 70%. This means the market will remain in a tight supply pattern throughout September and October, with the price center likely to move upward. For downstream enterprises, this is not only a cost issue but also a supply chain stability issue—locking in supply in advance and moderately increasing safety inventory become common strategies to cope with the maintenance season.
Historically, supply gaps caused by unit maintenance are gradually filled after maintenance ends, but price declines often lag supply recovery. Therefore, this price increase cycle may extend to mid-Q4. For textile enterprises, short-term cost pressure is difficult to fully avoid, but by adjusting raw material structures and optimizing procurement schedules, the impact can be partially mitigated.