The night session on September 1 showed mixed results among major futures contracts, but the sector divergence was striking: polyester chain products mostly rose, with bottle flakes up 1.49% to 7772 points, PTA up 1.02% to 5964 points, and staple fiber up 0.84% to 7964 points; cotton system fell collectively, with cotton down 0.47% to 17085 points and cotton yarn down 0.04% to 22910 points. This divergence reflects two distinct pricing threads in the textile raw materials market.
Polyester Chain Strength: Cost and Supply-Demand Resonance
The collective rise in the polyester chain first stems from upstream cost support. PTA, as the core raw material for polyester, its price increase directly raises the cost center for staple fiber and bottle flakes. From the board, PTA's gain outpaced staple fiber, indicating cost transmission is still underway, and staple fiber processing margins may be squeezed. Bottle flakes saw the largest gain, linked to tight supply-demand: downstream beverage packaging enters peak season, with mills running at high utilization, creating rigid demand.
For polyester mills, the night session rally means short-term procurement costs rise, but if product prices can follow, profit margins may hold. Notably, staple fiber's gain was smaller than PTA's, suggesting downstream weaving demand hasn't fully caught up, and the rally is more cost-pushed than demand-pulled. Buyers should be wary of price pullback risks if cost transmission is not smooth.
Cotton System Pressure: Loose Supply and Weak Demand
Cotton's decline contrasts sharply with the polyester chain. The main cotton contract fell more than cotton yarn, indicating stronger expectations of loose upstream supply. Global cotton-producing regions have seen stable weather, with new crop supply expectations rising, coupled with high port inventories, pressuring supply. Demand-wise, downstream textile mills face insufficient orders, yarn inventories accumulate, and procurement is mostly just-in-time, offering little support to cotton prices.
Cotton yarn's smaller decline suggests mills are keen to support prices, but this implies spinning margins are compressed. For cotton traders, the night session weakness may signal spot price follow-through, necessitating faster sales. For textile mills, falling cotton prices reduce raw material costs, but if finished product prices fall in tandem, actual benefits are limited.
Transmission of Sector Divergence to the Chain
The divergence between polyester and cotton essentially reflects differences in cost structures and supply-demand fundamentals. Polyester chain is influenced by crude oil and PX prices, while cotton relies more on its own fundamentals. Currently, crude oil oscillates with a bullish tone, supporting polyester costs; cotton faces new crop supply pressure, with bearish sentiment.
For downstream weaving and apparel companies, this divergence means raw material selection needs to be more flexible. Weak cotton prices may shift some orders to pure cotton products, while polyester's cost advantage narrows. Foreign trade firms should monitor exchange rate fluctuations and overseas demand changes; if cotton prices continue to weaken, it may affect pricing competitiveness of cotton textile exports.