The first trading week of September did not bring the expected broad recovery to the textile raw material market; instead, it staged a tug of war between bulls and bears. The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 17,110 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous settlement, while the domestic spot index for Grade 3128B cotton fell 53 yuan to 18,357 yuan per ton—a rare divergence between futures and spot prices. Meanwhile, polyester staple fiber surged 200 yuan to 8,080 yuan per ton, becoming the week's standout performer.
Market Background
The root of the futures-spot divergence lies in differing expectations for supply and demand. Futures were supported by expectations of tight supply before new cotton listing, as some ginners in Xinjiang have started pre-purchasing seed cotton, heightening attention on new-season output and acquisition costs. However, spot trading remained subdued, with spinning mills refraining from large-scale stockpiling and old cotton consumption progressing slowly, indicating that physical demand has yet to catch up with futures optimism.
As the new cotton harvest in northern Xinjiang approaches, supply pressure from concentrated listing will gradually emerge. Public industry data suggests that Zhengzhou Cotton's upside will be constrained, and prices are likely to fluctuate widely without a basis for a sustained unilateral rise. For spinning mills that rely on locking in raw material costs, this means the hedging value of the futures market rises, while the timing of spot purchases becomes more critical.
The cotton yarn market shows a pattern of "firm prices, divergent orders." Futures edged up, and spot prices followed, but the recovery is limited—the much-anticipated peak-season bulk orders have not materialized, with transactions dominated by small and short orders. Product structure divergence is particularly pronounced: medium-to-high count compact yarns sell smoothly, while low-count yarns face sluggish demand, leading to rising finished goods inventories. This structural disparity directly reflects downstream weaving orders: end brands prefer high-count, high-density fabrics, while low-count yarns correspond to weak demand for low-end grey fabrics.
Industry Impact
The rally in polyester staple fiber is primarily cost-driven. Upstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices strengthened, coupled with maintenance at some chemical fiber plants and voluntary production cuts to support prices, tightening spot supply and fueling a 200-yuan single-day surge, outpacing cotton-based products. However, downstream weaving enterprises did not synchronously increase purchases, maintaining only just-in-time replenishment without concentrated stockpiling.
This reveals the core contradiction in the current supply chain: costs are supported, but demand lacks elasticity. Whether polyester staple fiber prices can sustain their rise depends on two variables—whether upstream raw materials retreat, and how much supply increases when maintenance plants restart. In other words, the strength of staple fiber is more "passive follow-through" than "demand-driven." If costs collapse, the risk of price declines cannot be ignored.
For downstream weaving and apparel companies, raw material price fluctuations directly squeeze profit margins. Grey fabric inventories remain a burden, and the recovery in weaving mill operating rates is limited, meaning the transmission of terminal orders has not yet formed a closed loop. For cotton yarn prices to break higher, sustained release of autumn/winter orders is necessary, not merely cost-push from raw materials.
Practical Recommendations
In summary, the textile supply chain at the start of "Golden September" presents a pattern of "strong raw materials, weak demand." Cost support gives raw material prices resilience, but terminal demand recovery has fallen short of expectations, leading to significant divergence across categories. The cotton market awaits direction from new cotton listing; cotton yarn depends on downstream order release; and polyester staple fiber remains highly linked to upstream petrochemical fluctuations. Blindly chasing high raw material prices is risky; rational inventory management is the better course.