A 500-yuan mass-market shell jacket now carries nearly 40 yuan more in raw material costs, while mid-to-high-end products above 1,000 yuan may see increases of 60 to 100 yuan. This is not a proactive price adjustment by brands but the result of volatile international crude oil prices transmitting down the petrochemical chain. In spring 2026, petroleum-based textile materials such as polyester, nylon, and spandex experienced broad increases, with some polyester grades jumping over 20% overnight, equivalent to 2,000 yuan per ton.
Raw Material Rally: A 35% Leap from 7,000 to 9,600
The intensity of this price surge is evident in quoted rates. Polyester POY, the main raw material for shell jacket fabrics, climbed from 7,000 yuan per ton in late January 2026 to 9,600 yuan per ton by March 10, an increase of over 35%. Even after a slight pullback, it remained elevated at 9,325 yuan per ton as of March 17, far above early-year levels. Notably, the rally is not confined to primary fibers—chemical intermediates for DWR coatings and seam tapes, also derived from petroleum, have risen in tandem, creating a systematic cost pass-through across the entire supply chain.
For procurement professionals, this means cost pressure is not a single-point fluctuation but a multi-point burden spanning fibers and auxiliary materials. Polyester POY trends deserve particular attention as a cost cornerstone: every 1,000-yuan change per ton can shift finished garment costs by roughly 10 to 20 yuan. The current level of 9,325 yuan per ton has significantly raised the baseline for new orders.
Industry Impact: Midstream Absorbs, Retail Lags but Is Inevitable
Cost shocks are creating a stark contrast along the chain: upstream prices change in an instant, while downstream order prices are locked months in advance. A fabric exporter reported that upstream mills have raised quotes by up to 15% for polyester products, yet seasonal customer orders were priced at the end of last year and cannot be altered. Consequently, fabric companies must absorb the losses from higher raw material costs, squeezing their margins.
This "midstream squeeze" is typical in the textile and apparel industry. Brands, traders, and fabric mills often lock in prices months ahead, but chemical raw material prices shift with geopolitical events and crude supply-demand dynamics. When materials surge during an order cycle, intermediate enterprises face a dilemma: raising prices risks losing orders, while holding prices means absorbing losses. Small and medium manufacturers, lacking bargaining power and hedging tools, are hit hardest.
Given that fabrics account for 60% to 70% of total shell jacket costs, fluctuations in fabric prices transmit almost linearly to finished goods. Industry estimates indicate that polyester increases alone add nearly 40 yuan to a 500-yuan mass-market jacket and 60 to 100 yuan to mid-to-high-end models above 1,000 yuan. Combined with higher processing and logistics costs, pressure on garment makers is substantial.
However, retail prices will not adjust immediately. Some brands hold low-cost raw material inventories from earlier purchases, providing a temporary buffer. But inventories will deplete, and when companies must procure at higher prices for new production, cost pressures will gradually surface. A lag effect is evident—price increases will not appear instantly on shelf tags, but autumn-winter new product pricing already faces real tests. The industry remains cautious about terminal adjustments, favoring indirect methods such as reducing discounts and adjusting promotional intensity.