The commodity price monitoring on September 4, 2026 revealed a telling signal: the nylon family saw broad gains, with POY, FDY, and DTY rising between 1.55% and 1.71%, while its key raw material, acrylonitrile, fell 0.87%. This divergence between upstream and downstream is not a simple cost-push scenario but a structural market driven by supply-demand mismatch. Textile chain players should rethink their pricing logic and inventory strategies accordingly.
Nylon Sector: Tight Supply Supports Prices, but Chasing Highs Is Risky
Nylon POY was quoted at 14,875 CNY/ton, up 250 CNY from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase as high as 23.44%. Nylon FDY and DTY also rose 1.62% and 1.55%, respectively, with annual gains between 16% and 19%. This marks a sustained rally driven by recovering downstream weaving and warp knitting orders, as well as supply contraction from maintenance at major plants. Notably, the raw material acrylonitrile weakened, implying that nylon producers' processing margins are expanding rapidly. Based on current spreads, cash flow profit per ton of nylon POY has improved significantly compared to last month.
However, high profits inevitably attract capacity restarts and accelerated new investments. Historical experience suggests that when processing fees are at elevated levels, a price inflection point often looms. For traders, the risk-reward of chasing prices and building inventory is not ideal. Downstream buyers should use futures or forward pricing tools to lock in raw material costs for the coming months, avoiding passive exposure to price swings.
Polyester and Cotton: Stability Masks Underlying Divergence, Cost Pressures Struggle to Pass Through
In contrast to nylon's strength, the polyester series remained flat on the day, with POY, DTY, and FDY unchanged, but polyester staple fiber edged down 0.24% to 8,222.5 CNY/ton. Meanwhile, PTA fell 0.61%, though its year-on-year gain remains high at 38.43%. This combination of falling raw materials and stable finished goods suggests that polyester mills are trying to hold prices to transfer cost pressures, but downstream orders lack sufficient support, making price hikes difficult to realize. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S stayed unchanged, while cotton fell 0.42% to 18,180 CNY/ton, with the annual increase narrowing to 17.71%, indicating that the cotton market has entered a high-level consolidation phase, and spinning mills are cautious about replenishing inventories.
From an industrial cluster perspective, operating rates in polyester hubs like Shengze and Changle remain around 70%, but new orders are mainly short and small, lacking large contracts. This implies that polyester price elasticity depends more on PTA trends, which are in turn influenced by crude oil and PX. If crude remains weak, PTA may continue to drift lower, providing some margin relief for polyester mills, but it could also intensify downstream wait-and-see sentiment, creating a negative feedback loop.
Viscose and Rayon Yarn: Moderate Gains with Decent Demand Support
Viscose staple fiber rose 0.97% to 14,540 CNY/ton, and rayon yarn increased 0.96% to 18,375 CNY/ton, with year-on-year gains of 11.5% and 6.68%, respectively. The moderate uptrend in the viscose chain is mainly supported by stabilizing dissolving pulp prices and steady release of rayon yarn orders. Compared with nylon's aggressive rally, viscose's movement is more rational, making downstream cost pressure relatively manageable. However, the year-on-year increase in rayon yarn is significantly smaller than that of viscose staple fiber, indicating that the yarn segment has weak pricing power and is seeing margins eroded by upstream raw materials.
For home textile and apparel fabric buyers, viscose products are currently in a relatively reasonable price range. If orders are confirmed, they may consider placing orders in batches to hedge against potential sharp rises in raw material prices.
Overall Assessment: Procurement Strategy and Risk Hedging Amid Mixed Movements
Aggregating the day's data, the average change in the textile sector was +0.32%, with more rising products (6) than falling ones (4), but divergence is clear. The "scissors gap" between nylon strength and raw material weakness presents both opportunities and risks. The opportunity lies in downstream enterprises locking in relatively low-cost raw materials (e.g., acrylonitrile, PTA) while pre-selling finished goods to secure margins; the risk is that if demand cannot sustain, high prices will suppress end-user procurement, leading to inventory buildup.
From a macro perspective, the textile industry in 2026 remains in a weak recovery phase, with export order fluctuations intertwined with moderate domestic consumption growth. Enterprises should focus more on relative price spreads between varieties rather than absolute price levels. For example, the price gap between nylon and polyester has expanded to nearly 6,000 CNY/ton, which may prompt some end-users to switch to polyester alternatives, potentially curbing further nylon gains in the coming weeks.