In the week ending September 6, the yarn price list in Shengze looked like a calm surface, but beneath it, the varying trading activity across different yarn types has already sketched a clear structural divergence. Polyester-viscose 40s became the only specification actively sought after, while viscose rayon 10s and 30s moved faster than other counts. Meanwhile, most counts of pure cotton and pure polyester yarn fell into a 'listed but not traded' stalemate. This unevenness is not accidental; it points to a fresh game among raw material costs, downstream fabric demand, and spinning margins.
Raw Material Anchor: Stable Staple Prices Provide a Ballast
Stable raw material prices offered a 'ballast' for yarn quotations. Polyester staple fiber (1.56*38mm, cotton type) held at around 8,300 yuan/ton, while viscose staple fiber remained near 14,450 yuan/ton, with no weekly fluctuation. This means yarn mills faced no sudden cost spikes or collapses, so there was little incentive to adjust yarn prices proactively. Notably, the price gap between viscose and polyester staple fiber remains high at 6,150 yuan/ton, which directly widens the cost base difference between rayon and pure polyester yarns. For example, 30S rayon yarn is quoted at 18,300 yuan/ton, while 32S pure polyester is only 11,800 yuan/ton—a gap of 6,500 yuan/ton. For sourcing managers, this price structure implies that substituting pure polyester for rayon in fabric designs still offers significant cost advantages, but trade-offs in hand feel and drape must be considered.
Variety Divergence: Demand Logic Behind Active and Sluggish Sales
Looking at specific transactions, the 'considerable momentum' of polyester-viscose 40s is not an isolated phenomenon. Polyester-viscose yarn combines the crispness of polyester with the moisture absorption of viscose, and 40s is widely used in autumn/winter shirts and dress fabrics. Its strength may suggest that downstream weavers are preparing for seasonal orders. In contrast, polyester-viscose 32s saw a slight price increase of 100 yuan/ton to 14,700 yuan/ton, though trading was moderate; the uptick signals mills' tentative willingness to raise prices. The active trading of rayon 10s and 30s is related to home textiles and towel products—low-count yarns for heavy fabrics, while 30s suits jersey for underwear. On the pure cotton front, despite 21s and 32s moving due to jet-loom 'fugui' fabrics, overall prices remained unchanged, and other counts traded sluggishly, reflecting a lack of directional guidance from the cotton market, with both mills and buyers adopting a wait-and-see stance. Pure polyester 45s sold better than other counts, linked to rigid demand for sewing threads and embroidery threads, but overall volume was limited, indicating that terminal garment orders remain weak.
Outlook: Industrial Implications of a Possible Rayon Price Uptick
The source explicitly states that 'rayon yarn is expected to see a moderate upward adjustment in the future.' This is not a casual forecast but is based on the stable-to-adjusting viscose staple price and the smooth sales of certain rayon counts. Historically, when raw materials stabilize and downstream inquiries increase, mills often raise prices by 100-300 yuan/ton within one to two weeks. For rayon buyers, this implies that the current 30S quote of 18,300 yuan/ton may be near a cyclical low; if orders are in hand, locking in prices earlier could be safer than waiting for a pullback. Meanwhile, if the momentum of polyester-viscose 40s continues, T/R fabric quotes may follow suit, and foreign trade companies should reserve room for cost adjustments when quoting overseas clients. Overall, this week's 'stability' in Shengze resembles a state of accumulation—raw material costs have solidified, inter-variety price gaps have widened, and the market awaits a clearer direction from end demand.