In early September, the textile raw material market presented a rare divergence: nylon series products posted daily gains above 1.5%, while upstream chemical materials like PTA and acrylonitrile weakened simultaneously. This combination of 'downstream rising, upstream falling' is uncommon, revealing not just short-term supply-demand disturbances but potentially the start of a profit redistribution across the industrial chain.
Market Divergence: Nylon Strength vs. Aromatics Weakness
According to price monitoring data from Shengyi She, on September 4, among textile commodities, six products saw price increases, with nylon POY, FDY, and DTY rising 1.71%, 1.62%, and 1.55%, respectively. Notably, nylon POY surged 23.44% year-on-year, while FDY and DTY rose 15.94% and 18.72%, indicating a trend upward channel for the nylon chain. Meanwhile, viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn increased by 0.97% and 0.96%, and raw silk rose 0.85%, though still down 8.67% year-on-year, showing the silk sector remains depressed.
In contrast, acrylonitrile, PTA, and cotton fell by 0.87%, 0.61%, and 0.42%, respectively. PTA's year-on-year gain remains high at 38.43%, but the short-term pullback suggests earlier momentum is fading. Polyester staple fiber dropped 0.24%, while polyester filament prices were flat, with POY up 24.78% year-on-year and DTY/FDY up over 22%. The overall average daily change was 0.32%, seemingly calm but with underlying currents.
Industrial Logic and Transmission Effects
The collective strength of the nylon chain is primarily attributed to cost push from upstream caprolactam. Caprolactam prices have climbed steadily since August, directly raising polymerization and spinning costs. However, successful cost pass-through depends on downstream demand. The simultaneous and similar increases in nylon POY, FDY, and DTY indicate high acceptance of price hikes, usually implying that weaving and apparel companies are restocking or terminal orders are recovering. For buyers, nylon fabric price expectations may be revised upward, especially in sportswear and outdoor gear where nylon usage is rising.
PTA's decline follows a different logic. Despite high year-on-year gains, recent maintenance turnarounds have ended, and supply is loosening. While downstream polyester operating rates remain high, flat polyester filament prices suggest that the polyester segment is not eager to purchase PTA, with inventory pressure shifting from raw materials to midstream. Acrylonitrile's fall also relates to increased supply from new capacity, though its 41.37% year-on-year increase still indicates historically high levels.
Cotton's slight decline (-0.42%) seems trivial, but given a 17.71% year-on-year rise, it could be a normal correction before new cotton harvest. Cotton yarn prices were flat, with 21S and 32S up 7.40% and 6.58% year-on-year, suggesting profits are more concentrated in the yarn segment than in upstream raw materials. Spandex remained flat but rose 19.59% year-on-year, indicating tight supply-demand in elastic fibers.
Practical Implications for Sourcing and Production
The price divergence implies distinct cost pressures across categories. For fabric mills using nylon, procurement costs will likely continue upward; for those using polyester or cotton, costs remain relatively stable. This calls for refined sourcing strategies, moving beyond the broad view of 'all commodities rising or falling together.'