The September 4 commodity price data reveals a contradictory signal: nylon POY jumped 1.71% in a single day, while PTA fell 0.61%. In the same market, downstream fibers and upstream materials moved in opposite directions—unusual in the textile supply chain—pointing not to a simple rise or fall, but to a redistribution of profits across segments.
Direct Price Divergence
On that day, the nylon chain performed most prominently: nylon POY rose 1.71% to 14,875 CNY/ton, nylon FDY gained 1.62% to 17,275 CNY/ton, and nylon DTY followed with a 1.55% increase to 17,000 CNY/ton. Their year-on-year gains reached 23.44%, 15.94%, and 18.72% respectively, indicating sustained demand support for nylon.
Meanwhile, viscose staple fiber rose 0.97% to 14,540 CNY/ton, and spun rayon increased 0.96% to 18,375 CNY/ton, with annual gains of 11.50% and 6.68%. Raw silk also moved up, adding 0.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton, yet remained 8.67% below last year's level, suggesting absolute prices have not fully recovered.
Declining products were mainly upstream: acrylonitrile fell the most, dropping 0.87% to 11,333 CNY/ton; PTA declined 0.61% to 6,562 CNY/ton; and cotton lint slipped 0.42% to 18,180 CNY/ton. Notably, PTA and acrylonitrile are still 38.43% and 41.37% higher year-on-year, so the current pullback looks more like a correction after excessive earlier gains.
Supply Chain Logic Behind Divergence
The collective rise in nylon products, while caprolactam did not appear on the decline list, suggests that nylon mills' price hikes are not purely cost-driven but likely stem from improved downstream orders in weaving and apparel. Nylon's increasing use in sportswear, outdoor gear, and luggage gives it stronger demand resilience than cotton or polyester.
The declines in PTA and acrylonitrile reflect another reality: upstream capacity expansion outpaces demand digestion, weakening cost support for downstream. Polyester products mostly held flat, with polyester staple fiber dipping 0.24%, indicating a wait-and-see mood across the polyester chain. For buyers, weaker raw material prices may open a temporary profit window, but they should also watch for further downside risks.
Cotton lint fell 0.42% while cotton yarn prices remained unchanged, meaning spinners' raw material cost pressure eased slightly, but yarn prices did not follow up, showing limited end-market acceptance. This 'falling raw materials, stable products' pattern is actually positive for cotton mills—processing margins are expanding.
Market Average and Structural Opportunities
The textile sector's average daily change was +0.32%, with six products rising and four falling, reflecting mild optimism. But the small average gain indicates most products remain in consolidation, with genuine trend opportunities concentrated in nylon and viscose.
Year-on-year data show polyester staple fiber up 26.75%, polyester POY up 24.78%, and polyester DTY up 23.15%. Although these held flat on the day, their cumulative gains are substantial, reflecting the overall strength of the polyester market this year. In contrast, raw silk fell 8.67% year-on-year—the only negative—signaling that the silk sector's recovery still needs time.
For foreign trade companies and buyers, the current price structure implies: nylon products still have upward inertia in the short term, but chasing highs increases risk; the pullback in PTA and acrylonitrile may offer lower procurement costs for chemical fiber plants, but watch if it becomes a trend; cotton yarn prices are stable while cotton lint is falling—an ideal window to lock in processing margins.