The benchmark price of viscose staple fiber 1.2D reached 14,540 CNY/ton on September 7, 2026, hitting the highest point of the past year. Annual statistics show that since September 2025, the lowest price was 12,800 CNY/ton, and the current level is 1,740 CNY/ton higher, representing an increase of about 13.6%. The continuous upward movement has pushed viscose staple fiber into a 'warning' zone, with industry data indicating over-two-year and over-three-year consecutive gains simultaneously.
Price Trends and Industry Signals
Looking at a longer timeline, this rally is not a sudden event. The benchmark price in early September 2026 was 0.97% higher than at the beginning of the month (14,400 CNY/ton), showing some slowdown in momentum, but year-on-year, prices have climbed from a low region to the current high platform. The average price over the past 12 months was 13,433 CNY/ton, while the current price is more than a thousand yuan above that average, indicating a significant valuation shift.
Such a 'high-level plateau' often implies two possibilities: strong cost support or downstream acceptance nearing its limit. In the viscose industry chain, dissolved pulp prices, energy costs, and environmental production restrictions are key variables determining supply elasticity. When prices remain in an over-increase zone for two consecutive years, producers' profit expectations may boost operating rates, but this could also trigger resistance from downstream users, slowing order momentum.
For textile enterprises, high viscose prices directly affect the cost structure of blended yarns. Taking the price spread between viscose and polyester as an example, viscose is at a one-year high while polyester staple fiber prices remain relatively stable. The widening spread may prompt some spinners to adjust raw material ratios, increasing polyester usage. If such substitution occurs, the demand elasticity for viscose will face challenges.
Industrial Belt Reactions and Procurement Sentiment
Major consumption areas of viscose staple fiber are concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong provinces. Recent market feedback indicates that weaving enterprises in Shengze, Nantong, and other areas are cautious about purchasing high-priced raw materials, often adopting a 'buy-as-needed' strategy to avoid inventory devaluation risks. Meanwhile, viscose yarn traders face a dilemma: high raw material costs compress profit margins, while downstream grey fabric prices fail to keep up, weakening their bargaining power.
Notably, the current price level has triggered 'over-2-year' and 'over-3-year' warning indicators. Historical experience suggests that when viscose prices remain above long-term trends for multiple years, the probability of a subsequent correction of more than 10% increases significantly. However, whether this rally is supported by new capacity additions or policy changes remains to be seen in upcoming monthly data.
For viscose producers, the current high price offers a profitable window. Yet, excessive price hikes may lead to order losses and accelerate a peak. Therefore, mainstream manufacturers tend to lock in partial output through long-term contracts while maintaining stable spot prices to preserve customer relationships. This 'stable price, volume increase' strategy is likely to become the industry norm in the coming months.