The reserve cotton sale on September 7 once again achieved a 100% transaction rate, but the slight dip in average price signaled that the cotton market's supply-demand tug-of-war has entered a new phase. All 8,007.099 tons listed were sold, with an average price of 17,402.55 yuan/ton, down merely 8.16 yuan from September 4. This near-flat trend reflects both downstream absorption capacity and a vote on future price direction.
Structural Signals in Transaction Patterns
Placing the daily data into a cumulative perspective clarifies the trend. As of September 7, the cumulative listed and transacted volume both stood at 288,725.1183 tons, with the transaction rate maintaining 100% and the average price at 17,303.28 yuan/ton. The spread between the highest and lowest prices—from 16,060 to 19,370 yuan/ton—indicates that cotton of different qualities and origins is being priced distinctly in the market.
Notably, the price gap between imported and Xinjiang cotton persisted. On that day, imported cotton averaged 17,402.55 yuan/ton, translating to 18,030.15 yuan/ton on a 3128B basis, with an average premium of 727.15 yuan/ton. In cumulative data, imported cotton's premium reached 1,419.70 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang cotton's premium was 1,146.90 yuan/ton—a difference exceeding 270 yuan/ton. This structure reveals that spinners' preference for imported cotton remains strong, especially in high-end yarn production where fiber length and strength are irreplaceable.
Deep Logic Behind Narrow Price Fluctuations
The sustained 100% transaction rate indicates that restocking demand from spinners is genuine; however, the narrowing premium—from a cumulative 1,347 yuan/ton to 727 yuan/ton on that day—shows that willingness to chase higher prices is cooling. Such a combination of stable volume and stable price typically occurs when demand has support but lacks confidence in the outlook.
For textile mills, raw material costs account for about 70% of production costs. The steady supply of reserve cotton effectively serves as a price anchor. When the gap between market prices and reserve cotton transaction prices narrows, mills' bargaining space compresses. This may explain why, despite full transaction rates, spot market sentiment has become more cautious.
Another factor is the timing window. September marks the transition between old and new cotton seasons. With new cotton harvest approaching, some enterprises are waiting for clarity on quality and prices before making decisions. This is also an important reason why reserve cotton transactions remain active but prices struggle to break out.
Transmission Effects Across the Supply Chain
The sustained high turnover of reserve cotton is a positive signal for upstream ginners—it means demand for cotton has not shrunk, but has become more discerning. For downstream weaving and garment enterprises, stable raw material prices help stabilize order expectations, especially amid a complex foreign trade environment where cost control equals competitiveness.
From a regional industrial cluster perspective, the price gap between Xinjiang and imported cotton may influence procurement strategies across different clusters. For example, enterprises in Shandong and Henan, which focus on medium- and low-count yarns, may prefer cost-effective Xinjiang cotton, while some Jiangsu and Zhejiang enterprises producing high-count, high-density products will continue to lock in imported cotton resources. This differentiation will push traders to refine their sourcing strategies.