On September 8, 2026, the benchmark price of viscose staple fiber (1.2D) settled at 14,540 CNY/ton, up 13.6% from the year's low of 12,800 CNY/ton. This level also marks the highest point in the past twelve months, suggesting that the market has partially priced in the upcoming peak season demand. For downstream yarn spinners, raw material cost pressure is shifting from an 'absorbable range' to a 'must-pass-through range'.
Price Movement Characteristics
According to annual statistics, the average price over the past 12 months was 13,437.49 CNY/ton, with the current price exceeding the average by about 8.2%. The gap between the current price and the yearly minimum has reached 1,740 CNY/ton. Notably, within the first week of September, the price climbed from 14,400 to 14,540 CNY/ton, a weekly increase of approximately 0.97%, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment. However, the daily change on September 8 was flat, indicating a short-term consolidation after the rapid rally.
More importantly, this price level has triggered technical warnings for 'two-year overbought' and 'three-year overbought' conditions. This is not merely a cyclical fluctuation but implies that the current price is above the normal historical range for this period, requiring the entire supply chain to reassess cost benchmarks. On the supply side, the viscose staple fiber industry is relatively concentrated, giving leading producers strong pricing power. With firm raw material (dissolving pulp) prices, mills are clearly inclined to maintain price support.
Industry Transmission and Impact
As a cotton substitute, rising viscose staple fiber prices directly increase production costs for rayon yarn and blended yarn. For knitting and weaving enterprises that primarily use medium-to-low count yarns, raw materials typically account for over 70% of total costs. This means that for every 1,000 CNY increase per ton of viscose staple fiber, yarn costs will rise by approximately 700-800 CNY. If downstream fabric mills cannot accept corresponding price hikes, spinners' profit margins will be significantly compressed, potentially forcing some small and medium-sized enterprises to reduce output or shift to polyester blended products.
From the demand side, the current period is the stocking season for autumn and winter fabrics, with home textile and apparel orders maintaining resilience. However, high raw material prices may dampen end-buyer willingness, and some brands may opt to increase the use of substitutes such as polyester or modal fibers. Additionally, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate affecting imported dissolving pulp costs, as well as domestic environmental policies restricting viscose capacity, are uncertain factors for future price trends.
Price Outlook and Operational Strategies
Considering the fundamentals, viscose staple fiber prices face strong resistance in the 14,500-14,800 CNY/ton range. On one hand, downstream acceptance of high raw material prices is limited; if yarn price hikes fail, viscose mills may be forced to concede. On the other hand, if dissolving pulp prices remain high, cost support will limit downside potential. It is expected that from late September to October, prices will fluctuate within a high-level range, with a possibility of a temporary spike during the peak order season.