On September 8, the reserve cotton auction once again concluded with a 100% clearance rate, as all 8,009.78 tons listed were sold at an average price of 17,339.91 yuan/ton, down 62.64 yuan from the previous session. While the daily figures appear modest, the cumulative picture is far more telling: total listed and traded volume reached 296,734.9 tons, with the clearance rate holding at 100% and the average premium reaching 1,328 yuan/ton. As the traditional peak season approaches, these numbers reveal genuine supply anxiety among spinners and their expectations for future prices.
Structural Temperature Differences in Auction Results
A breakdown of the day's transactions highlights a meaningful divergence between imported and Xinjiang cotton premiums. Imported cotton traded at an average of 17,339.91 yuan/ton, equivalent to 17,939.98 yuan/ton on a 3128B basis, with an average premium of 636.98 yuan/ton. In contrast, Xinjiang cotton's cumulative average stood at 16,996.85 yuan/ton (17,627.77 yuan/ton on 3128B), but with a higher average premium of 1,146.90 yuan/ton. Although imported cotton commands a higher absolute price, the more aggressive bidding for Xinjiang cotton indicates a structural preference for high-grade domestic fiber, while also reflecting relatively ample import quotas.
The price spread on the day ranged from 18,320 to 16,810 yuan/ton, a narrower band than in earlier sessions, suggesting more rational bidding. However, the cumulative spread between the highest (19,370 yuan/ton) and lowest (16,060 yuan/ton) prices remains as wide as 3,310 yuan/ton, underscoring significant quality and origin differentiation. For spinners, this means that refined raw material cost control is now decisive for profitability, and a one-size-fits-all procurement strategy is no longer viable.
Three Pillars Behind the 100% Clearance Rate
The sustained full clearance of reserve cotton is no accident. First, the new cotton harvest has yet to arrive in volume; September falls in a supply gap, making reserve cotton the most stable bulk source for mills. Second, volatility in international cotton prices has diminished the appeal of imports, while reserve cotton's base price remains market-competitive, backed by reliable quality. Third, as autumn and winter orders trickle in, yarn prices have struggled to keep pace, squeezing mill margins, so securing relatively low-cost raw materials becomes essential to maintain production continuity.
Notably, the cumulative average premium of 1,328 yuan/ton, though lower than earlier peaks, remains historically elevated. This reflects both strong restocking demand and cautious optimism: mills are eager to secure supply but wary of excessive stockpiling at high prices. The resulting pattern is one of stable volumes with marginal price adjustments.
Transmission and Response Across the Chain
The high clearance rate and price trajectory send clear signals downstream. For spinners, raw material costs are unlikely to ease soon, necessitating flexible product pricing. Weavers and garment makers face squeezed margins as yarn prices firm, requiring careful risk assessment when accepting orders. From a macro perspective, the pace and results of reserve cotton releases have become a key price benchmark, shaping expectations for the new cotton opening price.