In the first seven months of 2026, China's garment exports reached $89.45 billion, turning positive with 1% growth year-on-year, while July alone surged 8.5%. This rebound, though modest, conceals structural shifts: exports to the US grew 13.8%, yet China's share in the US market continued to be eroded by Vietnam; emerging markets like ASEAN and Latin America declined, while Russia and Africa posted gains exceeding 20%. These divergent numbers reveal the true state of China's garment industry amid global supply chain restructuring.
Divergence Behind the Data
The positive overall growth was mainly driven by July's 8.5% surge, expanding 5.3 percentage points from the previous month. However, this does not indicate a full recovery. By product, knitwear exports grew 2.5%, while woven garments fell 1.8% with a narrowing decline. Chemical-fiber knitwear led with 3.4% growth, while cotton woven garments dropped 3.8%. This disparity suggests overseas demand is shifting from formal wear to casual and sportswear, with chemical-fiber fabrics gaining orders due to functionality and cost-effectiveness.
Category-level performance shows clear winners and losers: coats and down jackets fell 10.5%, still the worst performer but with narrowing declines; suits, babywear, sportswear, and swimwear grew, while bras, dresses, and skirts declined. This indicates that restocking is not broad-based but focused on specific niches. For factories, the speed of product mix adjustment will directly determine their position in future order allocations.
Market Shifts and Share Realignment
Market data reveals deeper transfers. Exports to the US grew 13.8%, but China's share in US imports fell to 11.4%, down 4.6 percentage points, while Vietnam's rose to 20.7%. This apparent contradiction suggests that growth in US-bound exports stems more from overall US import expansion than from improved Chinese competitiveness. Some orders transshipped via Vietnam also inflate Vietnam's statistical share.
EU demand turned positive, Japan fell slightly by 1.2%, but China's shares in these markets remained stable at 29% and 46.8%, respectively, indicating sustained dominance. More concerning are declines in ASEAN, Latin America, and the Middle East—regions that were key growth drivers in recent years but now face headwinds from local supply chain development and demand volatility. Strong growth in Russia and Africa highlights how geopolitics and infrastructure cycles are reshaping trade flows.
Regional Disparities in Industrial Clusters
Domestic regional divergence reflects competitiveness more clearly than country-level data. Zhejiang led with $24.63 billion in exports, up 12.1%, accounting for 27.5% of the national total, underscoring the resilience of its garment cluster; Guangdong grew 6.4%. However, Jiangsu, Shandong, Xinjiang, and Fujian saw declines, while Hainan, Shanxi, and Heilongjiang experienced explosive growth—often due to low base effects or cross-border e-commerce policies, not necessarily sustainable industrial migration. Guangxi, Hubei, and Sichuan recorded significant drops, exposing the vulnerability of inland provinces in cost competition and order attraction.
For buyers, Zhejiang and Guangdong remain the most reliable sourcing bases, but attention should be paid to their capacity transfers to central and western regions. For trading companies, differences in policy support and logistics efficiency across provinces will affect delivery times and total costs.
Policy Risks and Strategic Responses
The second half faces a challenging external environment: multiple US tariff layers, the EU's cancellation of the cross-border small-package duty exemption, and accelerated global supply chain restructuring. July's surge may partly reflect front-loading of orders, so the recovery foundation remains fragile. Data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textile and Apparel shows rising trade friction risks and compliance costs.
In this context, export resilience relies more on product upgrading and market diversification than on price advantages. Companies should leverage the growth window for chemical-fiber garments by developing functional fabrics, while cautiously exploring high-growth markets like Russia and Africa, considering infrastructure and payment risks.