Oil prices are again approaching the $100 psychological mark, with Brent touching $99 per barrel during intraday trading, expanding gains by as much as 2%, while WTI strengthened to above $93. For the textile industry, this is not merely energy news—oil is the source cost of the chemical fiber chain, and every $10 per barrel increase adds roughly RMB 800 per ton to polyester raw material costs. Current levels have entered the cost-sensitive zone for most polyester plants, and the tug-of-war between price hikes and wait-and-see sentiment is intensifying.
Background
The direct trigger for this oil price rally is renewed geopolitical tensions, which have repriced supply disruption risks. Brent's return to $100 per barrel, a first since late July, indicates a significant shift from the previous trading range. Notably, this is not a one-day anomaly—intraday data shows a stepwise strengthening, with gains expanding from 1% to 2%, typical of trend-following buying rather than short-term speculative noise.
For the textile sector, the impact path is clear: crude → naphtha → PX → PTA → polyester chips → polyester filament/staple. Based on industry public data, each $1 per barrel change in oil alters PTA costs by approximately RMB 30-35 per ton and MEG costs by RMB 25-30 per ton. This means that if oil stabilizes around $100, the theoretical cost increase for polyester raw materials would be about RMB 300-400 per ton, directly squeezing already thin processing margins.
Industry Impact
The chemical fiber segment bears the brunt. Polyester filament and staple prices have historically shown high correlation with oil, but this time cost pass-through may not be smooth. Downstream weaving mills are operating at around 60% capacity, with greige fabric inventories at medium-to-high levels over the past three years, and procurement is mostly for essential restocking. If upstream raw material price hikes cannot be effectively transmitted to end products, polyester plants will have to absorb cost pressures, further tightening cash flows.
For weaving clusters like Shengze and Changxing, this means the window for raw material procurement is narrowing. Some traders have begun testing price increases for polyester, but whether actual transactions follow depends on the recovery pace of end orders. On the foreign trade front, RMB exchange rate fluctuations and high freight costs are already squeezing export profits, and additional raw material cost volatility will further challenge pricing strategies.